Coronavirus: Without vaccine people will be infected every 16 months

People who have been infected with the coronavirus can expect to become infected again within one to two years, unless they are vaccinated or wear masks regularly, according to a new model by US scientists. Based on the evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 virus to date, it has been estimated that an unvaccinated person has a 50% risk of becoming infected a second time on average 16 to 17 months after the first infection.

The researchers, led by Professor Jeffrey Townsend of the Department of Biostatistics at Yale University School of Public Health, published their findings in the journal Microbiology The Lancet Microbe, according to Nature and Garn. that re-infections will become more frequent.

They warned that the unvaccinated could get stuck again even a few months after the first time, so they should be vaccinated, because natural immunity does not protect them for a long time. More data will be needed in the long run, however, to know more accurately how long the natural immunity lasts after an infection. Covid-19.

The new model estimates that the average risk of re-infection increases by about 5% four months after the first infection, to 50% after 16 to 17 months. It remains unclear how serious a second infection can be in the same person. People can be quite different in how vulnerable they are to a new coronavirus infection and, if they do become infected again, how severe the second (or third) infection will be.

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) defines re-infection as a test-confirmed infection Covid-19 occurring in the same person 90 days or more after a previous infection also confirmed by a test.

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