Increases of up to 30%-40% in gasoline and diesel prices in Cyprus in the coming months are not ruled out, energy expert and Senior Associate / Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council Charles Hellinas told CNA, pointing out that developments in the oil markets depend largely on the statements and decisions of US President Donald Trump.
As he mentioned, oil markets are moving with great volatility, with the price of Brent oil soaring to $120 per barrel after statements about a possible extension of the war, before falling back to around $91-94 when the US President said that "the targets have almost been achieved."
Mr. Ellinas noted that if the conflicts continue for weeks, prices could exceed $120 again, while theoretically they could approach $150 in an extreme scenario, although this would require a complete halt to oil exports from the Middle East, which he described as difficult.
At the same time, he warned that attacks on energy facilities are intensifying uncertainty. As he explained, if refineries or natural gas and LNG production units are hit, it will take about two to three weeks to return to operation. He indicated that an LNG production plant in Qatar that has suspended its operations will take 2-3 weeks to resume, while there are estimates that production could be affected even until the end of the year, which would have serious consequences for international prices and the economy.
For Cyprus, he estimated that within the current or next week, when new fuel imports are made, the increases will begin to be transferred to the market.
"They haven't increased, but I believe they will arrive this week or next because stocks will run out," he said.
At the same time, he said that there is also the possibility of de-escalation, as many oil facilities in the Middle East have not completely stopped production but have reduced it, which means that they can resume relatively quickly.
At the same time, he pointed out that pressure is also increasing in the United States, as the price of gasoline has increased by about 20% and stock markets are under pressure, which is intensifying pressure on Donald Trump to end the crisis, especially in view of political developments in the US.
However, as he mentioned, developments are also influenced by the stance of Benjamin Netanyahu, who - as he said - remains committed to the goal of conflict with Iran, which adds even greater uncertainty to energy markets.
Source: KYPE
