The fine line on which the US-Iran agreement to end the war in the Middle East "walks" is reflected in the developments of the last few hours, which seem to have led to the cancellation of the first contact between the two countries in Geneva, scheduled for today, after the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding by Trump and Pesekian.
As reported on Thursday evening by the Hezbollah-affiliated Al-Mayadeen network, the Iranian negotiating delegation postponed its trip to Switzerland due to the ongoing Israeli aggression in southern Lebanon.
According to the source, the delegation had already prepared to depart Iran and begin the first round of negotiations, scheduled to last 60 days, before the decision to suspend the trip was made.
Tehran, according to the Lebanese network, had previously informed both Washington and the mediators that the issue of Lebanon remains a central element of the negotiations and will directly affect the development of the talks, with the source cited as stating that the ongoing Israeli aggression extending up to 10 kilometers deep into Lebanese territory constitutes a clear violation of the first clause of the Memorandum of Understanding and the framework agreement.
A few hours later, and while, as American media reported, the US vice president was ready to board Air Force 2, the White House announced that J.D. Vance's trip to Geneva was being postponed.
According to a White House spokesman, the postponement is due to "unresolved organizational issues regarding the next phase of negotiations."
"As the Vice President stated in his press conference, plans for the upcoming technical talks have not been finalized and the U.S. delegation is prepared to depart at the earliest opportunity. But the logistics of these negotiations have never been simple or predictable," the White House spokesman said.
"At this time, the Vice President is not leaving tonight. We will update you as soon as we have a concrete update on the next step. We look forward to starting technical talks as soon as possible," he added.
J.D. Vance said on Thursday that he intended to travel to Switzerland to attend the signing of the agreement, adding that technical negotiations aimed at finalizing the agreement are expected to begin over the weekend as he "definitely plans" to lead the US negotiating team.
The attitude of the markets
Asian markets reacted positively on Friday to the US-Iran deal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with stocks rising and oil recording significant losses. However, the postponement of US Vice President J.D. Vance's trip to Switzerland was a reminder that the process is still ongoing and that technical negotiations are not yet complete.
Asian markets moved higher on signs that the Washington-Tehran agreement will allow the normalization of energy flows from the Persian Gulf and reduce inflationary risks for the global economy.
Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 0,68% to 70.375,24, while South Korea's Kospi gained 0,78% to 8.933,03. The broader MSCI Asia Pacific index rose about 0,3%, nearing record highs.
The picture was also positive in the markets of Japan and Australia, as the de-escalation of geopolitical risks limited concerns about inflation and global growth.
The positive sentiment was followed by Wall Street, which recovered most of the previous session's losses, further strengthening investment optimism.
Specifically, the Dow Jones rose by 0,14%, remaining below the 52.000-point mark, at 51.564. The S&P 500 rose 1,08% to 7.500 points and the Nasdaq jumped 1,91% to 26.517 points.
It should be noted that US markets will remain closed on Friday due to the Juneteenth holiday, which commemorates the end of slavery after the American Civil War.
Thus, in view of the holiday and due to the derivatives expiration that is considered the largest in the history of the US markets, the volume of transactions moved above the average. According to data from Citadel Securities, contracts with a total notional value of $ 8,3 trillion expired during the session.
With these performances, all three major indexes ended the four-day week with gains. The Dow, which "broke" the 52.000-point barrier, gained 0,8%, about the same as the S&P 500, which thus completed its 11th profitable week in the last 12. The Nasdaq was the biggest gainer with a total increase of 2%.
Investors believe the agreement between Washington and Tehran significantly reduces the risk of disruptions to the global energy supply chain, which is a boon for stocks and curbs demand for safe havens.
Oil price drops after Hormuz opening
In the energy market, the reaction was even more intense. Brent settled at $79,63 a barrel in Friday trading, recording another daily drop, while US WTI fell to $76,05 a barrel.
Oil is headed for weekly losses of about 9%, as the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz eases fears of disruptions to global supply, analysts said.
Prices are now at their lowest levels in the last three months, following the signing of the preliminary agreement between the US and Iran.
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is considered a crucial development for the markets, as approximately 20% of global oil consumption and a significant portion of liquefied natural gas exports pass through this particular sea passage.
During the crisis, hundreds of tankers remained stranded or avoided transiting the region. Although the agreement provides for the resumption of shipping, analysts say it will take weeks for trade flows to fully restore and traffic to return to pre-war levels.
The first tankers have already begun to transit the region regularly, which strengthens expectations for stabilization of the energy market.
Markets await next negotiations
The postponement of the trip did not change the positive sentiment in financial markets, however, he reminded that the agreement remains at a preliminary stage.
Investors are now closely monitoring the technical negotiations that are expected to begin over the weekend, as their outcome will determine critical issues such as the lifting of sanctions, Tehran's nuclear program, and the long-term operating regime of the Strait of Hormuz.
Source: protothema.gr
