As 40% of the value of any zero-emission car corresponds to the cost of the battery that supplies electricity to one or both of the car's electric motors, research estimates that reducing the cost of batteries will contribute significantly to the drop in prices of pure electrics cars.
If battery prices for all-electric cars are secured, then the prices of zero-emission cars could reach parity with the prices of their fossil-fuel counterparts in Europe in 2024 and in the US market in 2026, according to new research, published by Reuters.
It is also estimated that zero-emission cars (EVs) that play a key role in reducing hazardous emissions will account for two-thirds of global car sales by 2030.
A report from the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) predicts battery costs will drop by half this decade, from €141,47 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) in 2022 to between €56,21 and €84,32 per kWh. making EVs "for the first time as cheap to buy as petrol-guzzling cars in every market by 2030 as well as cheaper to run."
Batteries are expensive and account for about 40% of the price of an EV, a cost that has so far put pure electric cars out of reach for the majority of consumers.
But battery prices are steadily falling as automakers invest in new battery chemistries, materials and software to make more efficient electric vehicles, RMI senior director Kingsmill Bond told Reuters.
According to RMI's analysis, the rapid growth of electric models in Europe and China "means that EV sales will grow at least sixfold by 2030, to capture a market share of 62% to 86% of sales."
Sales
Sales of electric vehicles in the European Union increased by almost 61% in July compared to the same month in 2022, accounting for 13,6% of all car sales.
As APE - MPE reports, the European Union intends to ban the sale of new models powered by fossil fuels (gasoline, diesel) from 2035. The United States has not yet committed to a date for ending sales of models with an internal combustion engine, but California and New York are targeting 2035 to switch to selling only zero-emission models.
According to RMI research, oil demand for cars peaked in 2019 and will decline by at least 1 million barrels per day each year after 2030.
Research published by the University of Exeter's Economics of Energy Innovation and System Transition (EEIST) also predicts an increase in EV sales. It estimates that EVs will reach a "tipping point" in price parity with fossil fuel models as early as 2024 in Europe, 2025 in China, 2026 in the US and 2027 in India "for mid-size cars and even earlier for smaller vehicles".
Falling battery prices mean more than 60% of global car sales could be electric by 2030, the report said, adding that EVs could reach a similar price point to ICEs in Europe next year .
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