Fears of prolonged unrest and instability in Syria are returning very strongly, Charalambos Chrysostomou, internationalist and Head of the Research Service at the National Institute of Political Science and International Relations, told CNA, following the massacres of civilians in the country in recent days.
Mr. Chrysostomou said that there is a risk that Syria will become a new Iraq or a new Libya with prolonged instability and civil war in a divided country where all minorities live under a state of terror after the massacres of over a thousand civilians, mainly Alawites, a minority from which former leader Bashar Al-Assad comes.
He also stressed that the destabilizing role of Turkey, which is the main country currently supporting the Sunnis and extremist Islamists and the central administration of Syria, must be highlighted.
History
As Mr. Chrysostomou mentioned, since December 2024, after the fall of the Assad regime, the new interim leadership under Ahmad al-Sarra attempted to establish a central administration in Damascus.
In fact, he noted, even though he was a former jihadist, an Islamist who came from both ISIS and other extreme Islamist organizations, he tried to present a softer image, without any evidence of revenge against supporters of the previous Assad regime, and an attempt to be accepted by the European Union, the US, Israel and others and that he would operate in a way that respected human rights and Syria's minorities.
Mr. Chrysostomou said that three months later, the events of recent days show a derailment and fears of prolonged unrest and instability in Syria are returning very strongly.
He noted that the areas of western Syria, the coastal areas towards the Mediterranean Sea, where Latakia is located, Tartus, which was the Russian base, and were areas of the Alawite minority (a minority from which Assad came) appear to have not been fully controlled by the forces of the central administration of Syria and there are remnants, groups that are close to Assad.
Iran involvement
These groups, said Mr. Chrysostomou, appear to have been reorganized during this time, especially in the mountainous areas of Latakia, but also with the help of Iran, which supported the Assad regime.
Iran, he explained, wants Syria to be further destabilized for various reasons and seeks this for three reasons.
The first reason is to create a problem in Israel, the second is - in an effort to prevent the Trump administration from turning to Iran with greater pressure - to create sparks elsewhere to divert American attention there. The third reason is to continue to have bases in Syria through Assad's former groups.
"So (Iran) supported a group of five thousand men under an Assad brigadier general, Talah, and these groups tried to cut off two highways so that they could wrest the region of Western Syria from the central administration."
Atrocities and a state of fear and terror
This action, he explained, provoked the wrath of the central administration and other Sunni Islamist extremist groups, which, in their attempt to deter the movement of former Assad supporters, committed incredible atrocities with the tolerance of the central administration and al-Sarra.
"The images from Syria are terrifying, horrific. In addition to the thousand dead civilians massacred, women, children, and men were massacred in a very cold manner in the areas of the Alawites and other minorities in Syria."
Asked if there were Christians among them, he said that the information is confusing, adding that there may also be Christians, but the atrocities were mainly committed against Alawites from Latakia and Tartus, which is the minority from which Assad came.
Mr. Chrysostomou said that the appeal of the three Patriarchs of Syria is very indicative of the situation of fear and terrorism that currently prevails among all minorities in Syria, both Alawites and Christians and Druze and Kurds.
"There is great fear both for their safety and for the situation in Syria," he said.
The danger of a new Iraq in a divided Syria
Mr. Chrysostomou told CNA that the risk is that Syria will become a new Iraq or a new Libya with prolonged instability and civil war.
At the moment, he noted, Syria essentially seems to be divided into four regions: the areas controlled by the Kurds, the Alawite areas where the massacres took place, the Druze areas supported by Israel, and the remaining part with the major cities controlled by the central government and various extremist Islamist organizations.
"These conditions create the great risk of a return to ISIS-type situations," he estimated.
This situation, he said, gave Turkey the opportunity to strengthen its military presence in northern Syria under the pretext that the Kurds would exploit the situation, and Turkish troops have already moved there along with the Syrian pro-Turkish groups already operating in the region.
At the same time, the Kurds are also on alert due to these developments in the north-east of Syria, but Israeli forces have also advanced beyond the Golan Heights to the Druze areas of Syria in southern Syria to prevent possible attacks against the Druze, who are a minority under Israeli protection within Syria.
Highlight Turkey's destabilizing role
Regarding the international reaction, Mr. Chrysostomou said that the EU, which opened a window of communication with al-Sarra, based on this development, beyond condemning the massacre, must be very strong on the issues of any restoration of relations with al-Sarra, which must be done with very strict conditions regarding the situation in Syria and respect for human rights.
The US seems to be taking a similar stance, he continued.
He stressed that Turkey's destabilizing role must also be highlighted.
"And in this situation, the destabilizing role of Turkey, which is the main country currently supporting the Sunnis and extremist Islamists and the central administration of Syria, must be highlighted," he concluded.
Source: KYPE
