US President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet at 4pm (local time) in the Rose Garden of the White House, where he will announce the tariff plan. The scenarios, the "Dirty 15" and the forecasts of Moody's Analytics
The world is watching the US, awaiting the imposition of new tariffs by US President Donald Trump, on what he has called “Liberation Day.” The 47th US President’s economic team is making the final additions to the plan, which Donald Trump is expected to unveil at 4 p.m. (local time).
Although many details of the plan remain unknown, today's announcement by the United States government is expected, according to the American network CNN, to be "... the most aggressive tariff move by the most tariff-obsessed president in modern history."
Meet at 4pm in the Rose Garden
Donald Trump met with his economic staff yesterday, Tuesday (1/4), and "... the tariffs he will announce at a ceremony in the Rose Garden at 4 p.m. will take effect immediately," said White House press secretary Carolyn Leavitt.
“Donald Trump has pledged to impose tariffs as a solution to almost any problem. And the president has kept his promise, so much so that it is causing great unease among investors, economists, CEOs and a large segment of the population, who fear that import taxes will do more harm than good. But Trump’s tariff efforts so far may pale in comparison to what lies ahead,” the American Network reports.
The scripts
He notes that it is still unclear whether the US President plans to impose individual tariffs on all US trading partners, or only on certain countries. There is also the possibility of a blanket tariff, perhaps as high as 20%, on all imports. "A blanket tariff of 20%, combined with retaliation from other nations on US products, would be a 'worst case scenario' for the US economy," Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, told CNN on Tuesday.
An economic "annihilation"
A Moody's simulation found that such an escalation of the trade war would eliminate 5,5 million jobs, raise the unemployment rate to 7% and cause US GDP to fall by 1,7%.
"If that happens, we will have a serious recession. It is a disaster for the economy," said Mark Zandi, expressing confidence that the US President will announce less extreme measures to avoid serious damage.
Will it start with the "Dirty 15"?
There are many thoughts on the upcoming announcements by the US President. One idea is that reciprocal tariffs would start first with the “Dirty 15,” or the 15% of nations with which the United States has the largest trade deficits. This idea, proposed by Treasury Secretary Scott Besant, would represent a massive escalation in the trade war.
However, crucial details about tonight's announcements remain unclear, including how high tariffs will be imposed and on which products.
