US Elections 2024: "Hunting" the undecided by Harris and Trump - Targeting those who hesitate to go to the polls

It is a group of voters that represents a significant part of the electorate

ipa US Elections

The US is a breath away from the presidential election, and both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump's campaign are focusing on how to win over undecided voters.

In fact the interest is not those who have not decided which candidate to support, but mainly those who are leaning towards not voting at all.

This group of undecided voters represents, according to strategists, a significant portion of the electorate, compared to just 3% of registered voters who remain undecided about their choice of candidate.

Bill McInturf, a Republican pollster, notes in the Wall Street Journal that the biggest challenge for both campaigns is getting those voters to turn out. The success of either side depends more on mobilizing those citizens to vote than on converting those still on the fence between Harris and Trump. To this end, both campaigns and the volunteer groups associated with them used targeted advertising strategies.

MAGA Inc., led by Trump supporter Elon Musk, launched an aggressive advertising campaign in early October, targeting about 3,5 million voters in key states that lean Republican but have inconsistent voting records. The initiative builds on a broader effort targeting 4 million potential Republican voters who did not vote in the last three presidential elections. Ads were designed for streaming platforms, allowing for precise targeting.

As of last Thursday, about 20% of those Republican voters had already voted by mail, proving the effectiveness of targeted digital ads.

Similarly, Priorities USA, a top Democratic advocacy group, aims to mobilize voters who tend to support Harris but aren't fully committed to the polls. This group is estimated to comprise about 11% of all voters. Their strategy included ads that leveraged social pressure. This approach is part of a larger psychological tactic by Democrats to boost participation by presenting voting as a social obligation.

Data from "Wall Street Journal" polls show that the decisions of voters who until now did not wish to vote can significantly influence the outcome of the election. Regular voters, who participate in all presidential and midterm elections, have shown consistent support for Harris by at least four points throughout the year. This element, therefore, makes Trump rely on less consistent voters to bridge the gap.

Trump has a significant lead among voters who voted in the last two presidential elections but skipped the midterms, as well as among those who did not vote in one or both recent presidential elections. In contrast, Harris has a strong lead among younger voters, particularly those under 26.

Unlike regular voters who watch TV, undecided and younger voters are mostly informed through online and streaming platforms. Therefore, both campaigns focused on the digital approach, using data to track the effectiveness of ads and voter reactions. This involved close monitoring to determine whether targeted ads were engaging their target audience.

Meanwhile, in the field in recent weeks, Republicans have changed their door-to-door strategy to target mostly low-probability voters.

But there have been concerns within Republicans about the effectiveness of Trump's campaign because of its reliance on outside volunteer groups.

Direct mail is also a key tool, with Republicans dominating this form of lobbying, though the Harris campaign has stepped up its efforts to nearly the same level.

Research supports the effectiveness of these methods, with studies showing that these appeals can reliably increase turnout by one to two percentage points – an impact that could be decisive in a lopsided election.

Reaching out to voters disenchanted with the system emerged as a high priority for both campaigns. The last-minute efforts, combining targeted digital outreach, direct mail and traditional door-to-door campaigning (in the case of the Democrats), are aimed at activating this critical group that may ultimately decide who will be the next occupant of the White House. House.

Source: protothema.gr