"Impossible n'est pas français". The famous French phrase, which means that "nothing is impossible in France", fits like a glove to what happened and what will happen in the country's elections.
The historic dominance of the Far Right, with Marine Le Pen winning 33,5% of the vote, will be decided in the second round, on July 7. There, where the current president of the country, Emmanuel Macron, is calling the French to enlist, with the aim of "blocking the extreme right".
In almost any way you look at it, this election is historic for France. Not only because the massive turnout of voters at the polls seems to be surpassing all previous ones. But also because the far-right Rassemblement National front led by Le Pen doubled its percentages compared to the 2022 elections (18,7%), showing for the first time that it has the absolute potential to conquer power.
The party that gets an absolute majority of 289 seats will have the right to appoint a prime minister and government - although Macron himself has said he will not step down as president. Le Pen, as the outright winner, hopes to win the "magic" number of seats that will allow her to form France's first far-right government since the Nazi occupation.
If that happens, there could be a period of cohabitation between leaders of different parties – something that last happened from 1997 to 2002, when conservative President Jacques Chirac sided with Socialist Prime Minister Lionel Jospin.
Today's count will not give the final result – as the most successful candidates in each constituency will go on to a run-off on July 7, and the relatively high turnout seen today suggests that many of them will.
The dynamic, on the other hand, to stop this frantic march of Le Pen towards the Champs-Élysées is the coalition of left parties, the Nouveau Front Populaire, which has won 28,1% according to the initial estimates of the results from Ipsos Talan for France Télévisions, Radio France, France24/RFI and LCP Assemblée Nationale. President Macron, who surprised the French nation (and beyond) by calling for elections on June 9 after his defeat in the European elections, sees his own coalition in third place, with 20,7%.
For Macron, however, defeat is not just defeat. Because 20,7% is a huge improvement from the 14,6% of the European elections that shocked him and pushed him to the decision for early elections and almost "equalizing" the results he got in the corresponding part of the national elections in 2022. A fact that leaves him hopes for his overthrow and staying in power.
Macron's "recruitment" and regulator Hollande
With the "tradition" that wanted France's political forces to unite against the extreme right having - at least so far - been broken, Emmanuel Macron, in his statement to the French news agency Agence France-Presse immediately after the first exit polls, called voters to stop the Far Right in the second round. "Against the Rassemblement National, it's time for a big, clearly democratic and republican run-off," he said.
He welcomed the increased participation in the process, calling it proof of "the will of French voters to clarify the political situation".
Regulator in this path to the second round, is, as it turns out, a person from ... the old days, who "responded" to the surprise that Macron had in store with the snap election, with his own surprise. The reason for the former president of France, Francois Hollande, who surprised even his own party, when he decided to run for his return to the French Parliament. The socialist former president of the country, went to the elections - of course - with the left-wing Nouveau Front Populaire alliance in the 1st electoral district of central Korez and triumphed, receiving 37,63%. He beat far-right Rassemblement National (RN) candidate Mette Pouget (30,89%) and right-wing Les Républicains candidate Franci Dubois (28,64%), who had been backed by President Emmanuel Macron's camp.
"An urgent situation also requires an urgent decision," Hollande said to justify his decision to return to the electoral fray, backing the Nouveau Front Populaire. He had been one of the biggest critics of the previous alliance between France's most left-wing parties, NUPES in 2022. But this time, he said, the common goal was to keep the Far Right out of power.
In the European elections, the RN had prevailed in its constituency, with almost 32% of the vote. Will Hollande now be able to be the unifier and the person to bring mass support to the second round of the left-wing coalition of parties, which consists of the Socialist Party, the Greens and Jean-Luc Mélenchon's party?
The positions in the Parliament
Based on the results so far, Le Pen's victory is clear, but possibly not enough to "lock in" a majority in the French Parliament.
Ipsos calculates that at the current rate, Le Pen and her allies can take between 230 and 280 seats in Parliament, with an absolute majority requiring 289.
The left-wing parties, in which Mélenchon's formation seems to have the "absolute command", based on the percentages of the first round, wins about 125 to 165 seats, while Macron may end up with 70 to 100 seats.
Tonight's big losers included right-winger Eric Zemur, his party sinking below 1%, showing massive leaks to his rival, Marine Le Pen.
Source: protothema.gr
