The signing of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the United States and Iran to end hostilities in the Persian Gulf region is undoubtedly a significant diplomatic development, which raises expectations for a gradual de-escalation of tension in one of the most critical maritime corridors of global trade.
However, according to a new special report by EOS Risk Group, the current conditions in the Strait of Hormuz do not yet allow optimism for an immediate return to normality.
The risk management company notes that the agreement signed on June 17 initiates a 60-day period during which the two sides will negotiate the terms of a definitive agreement.
The MoU provides for the cessation of hostilities between the US, Iran, Israel and Hezbollah, while it was accompanied by statements suggesting that the Strait of Hormuz would be fully reopened to international shipping and that the US naval blockade of Iran would be ended.
However, EOS stresses that the reality on the ground remains more complex. While US officials appear to believe that commercial transits can continue based on existing procedures and security mechanisms, the Iranian side has yet to issue clear instructions on how commercial vessel transits should be conducted after the agreement is signed.
On the contrary, the Iranian authorities have made it clear that processes are underway to define new rules and that official announcements will follow regarding the operating status of the Strait.
According to EOS, this divergence of views between Washington and Tehran creates an environment of increased uncertainty for the shipping industry. The company believes that the signing of the MoU should be seen as the beginning of a period of testing and confirmation, and not as the end of the crisis.
The key issue is to demonstrate in practice that commercial ships can transit the Strait of Hormuz repeatedly, safely and without interference for a significant period of time. Until such a track record is established, the risk assessment cannot be materially changed.
Limited initial market movements
The report notes that since the agreement was announced, there have been early signs of a resumption of commercial activity. Some LNG carriers, tankers and vehicle carriers have already transited the region, but overall traffic volumes remain well below normal levels.
EOS notes that shipowners who chose to move first are still following a very cautious strategy. Most transits are made via routes recognized and accepted by the Iranian authorities, while there is still no reliable evidence that international shipping has returned to using traditional traffic lanes without prior approval or coordination with Tehran.
The company also notes as a positive sign that some vessels that had been out of AIS transmission for a long time have reactivated their identification systems. However, this practice is not yet being implemented consistently across the fleet, reflecting continued market caution.
The risk picture has not changed.
EOS places particular emphasis on the assessment that the operating environment for shipping has not changed substantially.
Although the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) downgraded the threat assessment for the Strait of Hormuz from "Critical" to "Substantial", the company emphasizes that this decision primarily reflects the reduced likelihood of direct military conflict and not the elimination of underlying risks.
As stated in the report, the military forces of all parties involved remain deployed in the region, reports of mine risks are still considered relevant, while the escort and protection mechanisms that were developed during the crisis continue to apply.
Furthermore, the absence of definitive instructions from the Iranian side increases the risk of misinterpretations or miscalculations between military and commercial actors operating within close proximity to each other.
EOS considers that the period of time that has elapsed since the signing of the agreement is too short to draw any firm conclusions regarding the improvement of security conditions.
As noted, a sufficient number of incident-free crossings have not yet been recorded to justify a revision of the overall risk assessment for the area.
Recommendation for increased caution
Based on the available data, EOS recommends that ship operators and charterers continue to treat the Strait of Hormuz as an area of high operational risk. The company suggests, where feasible, postponing transits for at least 24 hours or until clear instructions are issued by the relevant Iranian authorities regarding traffic management.
At the same time, it points out that ships that choose to continue their voyages should follow the routes identified by the competent authorities and maintain constant communication with the security agencies operating in the area.
The company even warns that even ships operating under the supervision of international forces may remain exposed to risks, as long as there is no corresponding information or acceptance from the Iranian side.
Long-term status uncertain
The report also devotes special attention to the long-term implications of the agreement. As it notes, the MoU stipulates that Iran will ensure the safe passage of commercial ships without imposing fees for a period of 60 days. However, this provision is temporary in nature and is not accompanied by commitments as to the regime that will apply after the end of this period.
EOS estimates that the future of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz will depend more on the practical moves that the two sides will follow and less on the content of the agreement.
Provided that the coming months pass without military incidents, interference with navigation or attacks on merchant ships, the confidence of shipowners and insurers is expected to be gradually restored, leading to an increase in traffic and a de-escalation of war risk insurance premiums.
Until then, however, the international shipping community continues to monitor developments in one of the most important maritime hubs of global trade with particular attention.
Source: protothema.gr
