Thriller for the evening of the coming Sunday, the second round of the French parliamentary elections, the developments of the last hours in the final stretch to the polls portend. Yesterday may have been the definitive clarification of the landscape of the contests in the 501 (out of a total of 577) single-seat districts where there is a repeat election on Sunday, but political analysts and pollsters in France are unable, for now at least, for a number of reasons, to proceed with safe predictions about the outcome.
After the final results of the first round, the election of 76 deputies in an equal number of districts was confirmed. 39 of them belong to the RN of Le Pen – Bardela and their allies, 32 to the left alliance New Popular Front – NFP, two to Macron’s party “Together” (Ensemble – EN), one to the Republicans (Les Républicains – LR), while two independent right-wing candidates were also elected. Therefore, next Sunday, repeat polls will be held in 501 constituencies.
In the first round, the RN came first in 296 constituencies out of 577, more than half, while the NFP led in 150 and the Ensemble in 60.
Significant, but not universal response
The fact is that there has indeed been a significant response to the calls of both the leaders of the parties that make up the left-wing alliance of the NFP, as well as outgoing Prime Minister Gabriel Atal on behalf of Emmanuel Macron's party, for the formation of a wall that in the second round will halt the advance of the extreme right, preventing in any case the achievement of an absolute majority by the RN and its allies.
Indeed, until the end of the constitutional deadline yesterday evening, there were mass withdrawals of candidates of both parties in hundreds of districts where there were three or even additional candidates for the second round, in favor of the awarding of candidates of the other party which is usually ahead and has a stronger chance of winning. beat his opponent on Sunday.
But while on the NFP side, the withdrawal of its candidates was universal, the same was not the case with the candidates of Macron's party. The losses were considerable. Reason, the long-standing rivalry of the Macronists with the far-left party of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, which pushed iconic figures from the Macron camp, such as the former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe or the current Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire, as well as other top government officials to refuse until end all cooperation with the New People's Front, considering a majority of it as equally destructive as a counterpart of the extreme right.
The electoral map
How is the final map of the second round, which will be officially announced later today? According to the data of the French media, in 190 regions on Sunday there were to be an equal number of duels between two candidates.
But already 218 candidates for the National Assembly (131 from the Left Front, 83 from the Macron side and 4 from smaller parties) have withdrawn to strengthen candidates of the center or the left against the extreme right.
In 306 regions there were initially three candidates who met the conditions for participation in the second round, while in 5 regions there were 4 candidates. It is recalled that in the event that the election goes to a second round, the first two candidates in the first round have the right to participate in it, plus whoever else gathered at least 12,5% of the registered voters in the specific electoral district.
131 candidates withdrew from the NFP, while 388 continue in the second round. From Macron's EN coalition, 83 withdrew and 254 continue. Conversely, from Le Pen-Bardela's RN, only 3 Pro-Republican (LR) candidates withdrew and 483 continue.
After the withdrawals, the 190 duels between two candidates more than doubled to 404, triple fights from 305 dropped to 95, while quadruple fights shrunk from 5 to just one. Note that three-inning matches have been rare in the past. In the parliamentary elections of 2022 e.g. it was only eight.
Cautious optimism
This last element also shows why in the camps of the Macronists and the parties of the left, optimism is extremely restrained. On the one hand, because the numbers make the case difficult, as in 96 constituencies the conflict with the extreme right will not be a frontal one. On the other hand, because no one knows at the moment, the damage that will be caused by the dynamics of the line against the EN-NFP collaboration, emanating from Macronist cadres in the other regions as well. Where they will clash head-on, on the one hand the candidate of either EN or NFP facing the counterpart of the National Alarm.
On the other hand, despite the obvious cracks presented by the cooperation of the two sides against the extreme right, it does not cease from the moment it exists and strengthens, to create a climate and dynamics to prevent the extreme right majority, eventual and total overthrow, which indicates the irritation that was observed yesterday in the ranks of the National Alarm.
The leaders of the extreme right are upset
Jordan Bardela called the cooperation between Macron and Melanchon "unnatural" and "an alliance of dishonor" ahead of the second round of the elections. Wanting, as he claims, to highlight the difference between the two worlds, the one expressed by the National Alarm and that of the extreme left, he accepts a televised debate only between himself and Melanchon. Many, however, attribute his attitude to the fear of not repeating his very negative appearance in the debate before the first round, where he was soundly defeated by the outgoing Prime Minister Atal, something that, as it turned out, did not cost him electorally.
However, yesterday BFMTV, recognizing the impossibility of holding a regular debate, instead proposed a show with successive monologues by the leaders of the three major parties, in an order to be determined. Namely of Atal, for the outgoing presidential majority, the president of RN Bardela and the national secretary of the Environmentalists, the 37-year-old Marine Todelier for the NFP.
At the same time, however, both Bardela and Marine Le Pen for the first time yesterday avoided confirming that the RN will claim to govern only if it has an absolute majority in the new National Assembly. Opening the discussion about the fact that ultimately the scenarios for the day after the elections are much more than what appears at first glance. "We wish to govern. It is obvious that we cannot accept to go into government if we cannot act," said Le Pen. Clarifying that she herself will not participate in the government, nor president of the National Assembly, but will be content to head the group of RN deputies.
The far-right leading duo also lashed out yesterday at the online release of a song by a group of ten rappers entitled "No pasarán", opposing the RN's advance. It is disgusting, toxic, contains calls for murder, violent misogyny, gross antisemitism and conspiracy, the RN president wrote in a post. "I hope that the prosecution will respond to this disgust" he added.
Source: protothema.gr
