France's next day after the great coup – The 4 scenarios for the new government

First the front of the Left without self-reliance, 2nd Macron, 3rd Le Pen

Screenshot 7 3 France, Elections

The far-right advance towards the Palait Bourbons, the building of the French National Assembly, was unabated. The polls finally sent the far-right National Front of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardela to third place, the absolute favorite to win and in yesterday's second round of the French parliamentary elections after the triumph of 32,25% of the first.

And they gave a big-unexpected-victory to the New People's Front (NFP), the alliance hastily formed by the parties of the center-left the day after the European elections, with the aim of blocking the far-right's path to a majority rule of the country.

At 5.00 in the morning the NFP gathered between 171-187 seats. Leaving behind Macron's centrist coalition, which in turn collapsed in relation to the results of the previous parliamentary elections, losing up to 100 seats, but winning 152-163 seats in the new National Assembly. Thus retreating to the second place, however against the forecasts that wanted it to the third and with a double-digit number of deputies. The RN ranged from 134-152 seats, the Resistant Republicans (LR) from 63-68, while 9-10 seats went to other smaller parties.

How did the twist come about?

A decisive role in the formation of the new landscape was played by the renewed increase in participation, the massive youth vote against the RN candidates and the withdrawal strategy of the NFP and centrist EN candidates in the cases of districts where there were 3 or even 4 candidates in b ΄ round, in favor of the one of the two formations that had a better chance of being elected in the face-off at the ballot box with the far-right candidate RN.

Now, however, they want a prime minister and a government. The next government day in France is a crossword for strong solvers. The first danger averted. The second, however, is for the country to avoid further political adventures, as the formation of a government is a multifactorial affair and the risk that the country will be tested by a prolonged political instability and even by anarchy is quite strong, with what this means for the economy and France's smooth path into the future.



The regulator of developments is President Emmanuel Macron. The result for him is disappointing, a heavy defeat that confirms that the center in France is shrinking. But on the other hand, seeing the glass as half full, it is not leveling as expected, so its bargaining power in the bargains with the leaderships of the following parties is not completely weakened.

For now, the only thing that is certain is that he will accept the resignation of Prime Minister Gabriel Atal, which the head of the centrist coalition elections will present to him in a few hours by visiting the Champs-Élysées. At a time when there will also be a first fairly clear picture from the opening of the markets and how they face the wreck of the government dreams of the extreme right in France, but also the risks of political liquidity and instability.

But who will get the prime ministerial mandate? It was leaked from the Presidential Palace yesterday that Em. Macron will first wait for the composition of the new National Assembly to fully crystallize in order to weigh the facts and proceed with his moves. In theory he should immediately call a representative of the NFP or ask the alliance to nominate him, since the NFP participated in the election without having nominated a candidate for prime minister in case of victory. For fear that the disagreements could even lead to a wreck of the formation of the front.

Keep in mind, however, that Macron must leave for Washington late tonight to participate in the NATO Summit on the alliance's 75th birthday.

NFP minority government

What are the government scenarios? First, a minority government of the NFP. From the point of view of all the parties that participate in the NFP, the willingness to exhaust the possibilities of taking over the governance of the country is expressed, but their views differ significantly.

The head of Insubordinate France, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, is in favor of a government of the NFP, without cooperation with the Macronists, therefore a minority and with a prime minister who comes from the party with the strongest number of MPs in the left alliance, namely his own. A huge disadvantage of such a government is that it will be vulnerable and ultimately hostage to difficult balances in the National Assembly and will be in danger of collapsing in its entirety one day.

NFP-EN collaboration

A second governance scenario is developed on the basis that the re-invigorated Socialists, as well as the Environmentalists, react to this pursuit of Mélenchon. They are asking for a vote in the ranks of the NFP and are looking for another name for the position of prime minister, probably agreeing to that of the popular leader of the Ecologists, Marine Todelier, while the name of François Hollande is also being heard. But Mélenchon's room for retreat is almost nil.

This proposal presupposes cooperation with Macron's centrists, or the whole of the NFP so that there is a clear majority. But Attal and other prominent figures of EN, such as former prime minister Edouard Philippe and current finance minister Bruno Le Maire, as well as Macron himself, reject any possibility of cooperation with Mélenchon and his party because of his extreme positions, as well as the frontal conflict that existed between the government and his party in the previous 5 years.

Therefore, the second scenario ultimately refers to a government of a clear majority under the difficult condition of cooperation in which the moderate components of the NFP will advance, with the more progressive parts of the EN, essentially dissolving the alliance with Mélenchon.

In this context, some see in the role of the prime minister even the former President Francois Hollande, who yesterday was solemnly elected as a member of parliament in the Coze region and said about the possibility of his prime ministership that "we are not there yet. It is not a matter of a person, but of the political role that the National Assembly wants to play or not."

Macron - goalies and special purpose

In fact, they also call on Macron to commit that he will not attempt cooperation with the Gaulish republicans for a minority government, a third scenario that is theoretically on the table.

Indicatively, the secretary of the PS (Socialists) Olivier Faure said that "I ask those who have been voted against three times to clearly state that they recognize their defeat and will not attempt to ally with the right to block the NFP", addressing Macron's bloc . And MEP Raphael Glucksman stated that "we must definitely find a solution with maturity, in a divided National Assembly, far from the extremes".

The fourth scenario concerns the discretion of President Macron - at the corresponding cost - to appoint a technocrat prime minister of a government of non-politicians, who will take over as a special purpose government for a one-year transitional period (as mandated by the French Constitution, prohibiting new early elections). governance of the country, limiting itself to the management of everyday issues without proposing bills that will cause friction and the risk of being voted down.


Understandably, the result caused disappointment and a lot of irritation in the ranks of the National Security Service. Bardella again attacked the "alliance of dishonor and dangerous electoral arrangements" between Macron, Atal and far-left groups. But he chose an optimistic tone of morale injection, closing his speech to his supporters gathered at the RN polling station: "Tonight it all starts, the National Alarm will strengthen its work, in the National Assembly first, behind Marine Le Pen, in the country afterwards. […] Nothing can stop a people who have begun to hope again.”

Le Pen avoided admitting her predicted defeat. "We are first. The tide is rising. It didn't go high enough this time, but it continues to grow," he told TV channel TF1. Hoping that the NFP alliance will be immediately and severely shaken by its internal disagreements over the new government.