The "thrillers" from February 28 until today in the second phase of the war that the US and Israel started by once again targeting Tehran are dozens and "touch" both the diplomatic and the purely military aspect that such a situation involves. Donald Trump became the first US President to put his "signature" next to the order to "attack" Iran not once but twice and today - or rather recently - is attempting to find a way out of a war that mainly affects it in its strong card - the economy. The regime in Tehran having clearly demonstrated resilience that probably no other country - except for Russia and China - could show against both the world's largest military power and the strongest war factor in the Middle East, Israel wants a corresponding exit for more or less the same reasons.
Both sides, without it being known when they will meet today in Islamabad, are clear that they want an "honest" settlement but are in no way willing to reach it "by paying whatever it takes". For its part, Iran does not want to sit down for the third time since last summer at a table from which it will emerge learning that it is once again unexpectedly under fire from Washington and Tel Aviv. It is clear that trust - if there ever was such a thing - between the two sides has been broken to the extent that even the data for a diplomatic contact require confirmation and Presidential guarantees - characteristically, Iran leaked late Monday night that its delegation will not go to Pakistan if the US Vice President does not attend and is in no mood to do so unless it receives the exact time of arrival in the J. D. Vance…
At the same time, it is a given that Tehran is not going to agree to any proposal for joint management of the Strait of Hormuz and will not easily give up the enriched uranium for which so much talk – and especially so many crowns from the Oval Office – has been launched along with the missiles from American fighters. There is no longer even an American reference to its conventional arsenal, not even in presidential posts on social media. Tehran wants to emerge from the crisis – unprecedented in size and intensity – in the annals of the Theocracy by keeping intact not only the narrative of heroic resistance, which for Iran is equivalent to victory, but also of preserving intact Trump’s “gift” that made the pivotal Straits in the Persian Gulf a global lever of pressure and also provided the “guide to the use” of this particularly important – until the West finds alternatives – “weapon”.
On the other hand, anyone who believes that the US is willing to leave this particular battle "defeated" in both narrative and substance either has not understood who the President of the country is or, even worse, has not realized that for Trump, such big "bets" are placed with him being convinced - and in most cases rightly so - that he will succeed. Trump is clearly fully aware today of the crisis and the cost-sharing that must occur if he really wants to "close" this war chapter.
The American President is obviously under more pressure from Tehran's new theocratic system and the Revolutionary Guards, as "unfortunately" there is still more to the West than Democracy and accountability. Donald Trump may have often - often - expressed himself negatively or derogatorily about this very "accountability", but this does not negate the fact that he himself is the Democratically elected leader of the most powerful economy on the planet. At the same time, no one should remove from the "equation" of any solution another highly personal factor associated with Donald Trump: that of his own infamy.
The American President, more than anyone else – at least in the 21st century – is publicly and extensively concerned with awards – praise and his own personal prestige. The insinuations – the slurs and the public accusations for not being awarded the Nobel Peace Prize are still very fresh, as are the constant underlinings about ending 7-8-9 and 10 wars in his 2nd term. Trump is today much more interested in this than in how “diplomatic” channels can provide answers and bridge the huge gap with Iran. If the proposal – solution does not include a satisfactory “quantity” and “quality” of infamy for the American President, he will hardly agree…
With the fifteen-day ceasefire expiring on Wednesday and the war despite the "ice" having lasted for over 50 days, the data again shows "conflict" as concepts such as understanding, logic and the effort to resolve on the US side are in the shadow of the country's President while on the Iranian side they are buried hundreds of meters below the surface of the earth, perhaps deeper than the 400 kilograms of enriched uranium. It is possible that neither side wants or cannot withstand - for different reasons - another war, but there is a significant chance that the scenario will be that they agree to continue exactly that...
Source: protothema.gr
