The nightmare returns to China of zero-COVID

Authorities say it is not yet clear exactly how its new outbreak was triggered COVID-19 in the vast Chinese lands: the worst in the most populous country on the planet since the beginning of the pandemic…

The fact remains, however, that the Omicron variant and the even more contagious BA.2 subtype are now spreading rapidly inland China.

They are already prevalent, responsible for about 80% of the new cases recorded in 28 provinces, out of a total of 31 provinces.

Despite the draconian measures in Hong Kong, they have been reaping the local population for more than a month, with hundreds of dead every day, mostly unvaccinated and the elderly.

Remaining true to its zero-COVID policy - despite the fact that with Omicron it seems increasingly futile - the Chinese government has now locked, in whole or in part, more than 37 million people in at least 13 cities and regions.

These extend from the northeast to the southeast of the country, including strategic economic, commercial and technological hubs such as Shanghai and Shenzhen.

Although the reported daily number of new cases remains low compared to other countries (more than 5.200 on Tuesday), the increase is exponential, compared to the few dozen new infections reported last February.

It is already higher than the 2020 pandemic outbreak in Wuhan.

This is in a country where over 87% of the eligible population for vaccination is fully immunized (with home remedies) and the official pandemic count is just over 120.000 cases (excluding asymptomatic patients) and just 4.636 deaths from COVID-19.

Return to quarantine

At the Shenzhen technology hub in the south, opposite Hong Kong, 17 million people are barred from leaving their neighborhoods, except for the necessary workers and those employed in emergency services.

Otherwise, one person is allowed to leave each household to supply basic goods. And this every two to three days.

The same strict measures have been imposed in Changchun and the city of Jilin, in the northeastern province of Northeast China - which is currently the epicenter of the new pandemic wave - as well as in the city of Dongguan in the south.

In Langfang, in the northern province of Hebei, the measures are even more draconian, with a ban on residents leaving their homes, except for emergencies.

In Shanghai's 24 million-strong financial center, authorities are battling to curb the spread of Omicron and its variants, blocking building blocks for the time being and putting residents - as in other areas - under constant diagnostic testing.

Even case contacts are quarantined for two weeks.

From March 21 to May 1, meanwhile, it was announced that 106 international flights scheduled to arrive in Shanghai would be diverted to other domestic destinations.

But all these lockdowns, travel restrictions, isolation centers being built on pandemic outbreaks, and massive diagnostic tests on such a large scale are now a huge logistical challenge for Beijing.

With the rapid spread of Omicron and BA.2, authorities are now allowing the public to purchase self tests. However, the extent to which infections are accurately detected remains questionable.

According to the CCTV network, in Jilin province, stocks of medical supplies and food have begun to run out.

Provincial Governor Han Joon's statement that with strict restrictive measures he will be able to stop the spread of the new wave of the pandemic within a week was commented with ridicule on Chinese social media.

Zero-COVID in the "microscope"

According to Zheng Guang, a former chief epidemiologist at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, developments are now pointing in one direction.

And she, she recently wrote on Weibo (the Chinese version of Twitter), is for China to learn to live with the coronavirus.

The new wave of the pandemic seems to intensify the relevant concerns, in the midst of de facto inadequacy (and) of the Chinese preparation of vaccines against the new variants of the coronavirus, but also of the relatively mild symptoms that accompany them.

For now, however, Beijing shows no intention of changing its plan.

At least not yet, as it is rumored that the goal is a victory over the pandemic with the "signature" of Xi Jinping shortly before the 20th congress of the Communist Party, next fall, during which the Chinese president is expected to extend his stay in power. for a third, historic term.

Not coincidentally, Lanzhou University in northwest China announced on Monday that it was predicting a new wave of COVID-19 be brought under control in early April, with a total of 35.000 cases.

This provided, he stressed, that the strict restrictions remain in force.

However, the rate of increase of cases in the coming weeks is estimated to be a decisive factor for re-evaluations.

New problems in the supply chain?

In the meantime, China's zero-COVID policy is once again fueling reasonable concern at home and abroad.

Big question: its effects on both the national economy and the global supply chain, thus exacerbating the serious problems caused by the war in Ukraine.

Many factories in China have already shut down, including Taiwanese Foxconn, Apple's main supplier, in Shenzhen.

Volkswagen and Toyota plants have been temporarily closed in Jilin, Changchun.

In Dongguan, an industrial city of 10,5 million people - estimated to have contributed one-fifth of China's GDP last year - production was largely on ice by March 21.

Port controls have been stepped up since Tuesday, raising fears of further turmoil in international trade, at a time already difficult for the global economy.

For now, analysts warn that the first effects will be immediately visible in China.

"It will see a sharp slowdown in March," Larry Hu, chief economist for China at Macquarie, said in a statement on Tuesday.

"Right now," he said, "policymakers are clearly putting zero-COVID ahead of growth."

tanea.gr