The pandemic is coming to an end - But we will learn to live with the virus, experts say

Experts point out that the end of the coronavirus pandemic is approaching but we will learn to live with it. COVID-19.

More specifically, they point out that the Homicron strain of SARS-CoV-2 has led to a severe wave of pandemic COVID-19 all over the planet.

It is estimated that more than 50% of the world's population will be infected with the Omicron strain between November 2021 and March 2022.

The doctors of the Therapeutic Clinic of the Medical School of EKPA Theodora Psaltopoulou, Giannis Danasis, Panos Malandrakis and Thanos Dimopoulos (Rector of EKPA) summarize the recent publication of Christopher LJ Murray about the future of the pandemic COVID-19 in the prestigious scientific review The Lancet (DOI: https: //doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736 (22) 00100-3).

The role of asymptomatic infections

The load analysis of "Omicron" depends significantly on the percentage of asymptomatic infections. Prior to the emergence of the new strain, the rate of asymptomatic infections was estimated at 40%.

The corresponding percentage for the Omicron strain is estimated at more than double and reaches 80-90%. In addition, the proportion of patients treated with COVID-19 who need intubation or die has been reduced by 80-90% in Canada and South Africa.

According to data from Greece during the period between 21 December 2021 and 17 January 2022, although the number of cases COVID-19 increased by almost 10 times, the number of intubated remained constant.

Despite the reduced severity of the disease, the huge wave of Omicron infections means that hospital admissions are rising in many countries and will increase at least twice as many as during previous pandemics. Considering the significant number of sanitary that will be quarantined due COVID-19, the pressure on health systems is particularly important.

The rate of spread of Omicron is so high that new protection measures against SARS-CoV-2 such as universal face mask use, vaccination of the unvaccinated and booster vaccination of the vaccinated are essential before the onset of Omicron in country. On January 17, 2022, the "Omicron" wave reached a peak in 25 countries around the world, while the peak is expected from now until the second week of February 2022.

For the tactics of zero cases

Of course for countries that follow a zero-case tactic COVID-19, the event and the Omicron wave cycle are expected to be delayed. Given that by March 2022 a significant portion of the world's population will be infected with the Omicron strain, and in many countries the third booster dose will have been administered to the population, the level of immunity to the virus is expected to be quite high worldwide.

Therefore, a recession of the pandemic is expected in a few weeks or even months. New variants of SARS-CoV-2 will certainly appear and some may be more serious than the Omicron strain. Immunity, whether from infection or vaccination, will weaken over time, creating opportunities for persistent transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Given the potential seasonality of the virus, countries should expect increased transmission during the winter months.

However, the health effects of future transmission of SARS-CoV-2 will be smaller due to widespread previous exposure to the virus, booster vaccines adapted to new antigens or variants, the administration of antiviral drugs and the knowledge that vulnerable individuals can be protected during future waves COVID-19 with high protection masks and natural distance.

Dr. Murray believes that COVID-19 will become another disease that will have to be managed by health systems and societies in the future. It is worth noting that the number of deaths from Omicron seems to be similar in most countries to the deaths during a severe flu season in the northern hemisphere. The era of emergency measures and restrictions to control the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 will be over. After the wave of the Omicron strain, the COVID-19 will return but not the pandemic.

Source: In.gr