According to an Italian analyst, the possibility of Russia prevailing on the northern shores of the Black Sea after the end of the war with Ukraine will be half a disaster for Turkey.
Turkey has a say in the region
"There is a possibility that Russia will dominate the northern shores of the Black Sea and expand its sovereignty there. "The Black Sea is an area in which, even in part, Turkey has a say," said Italian analyst Daniele Santoro during a broadcast on Italian television.
"Apart from the Caucasus, this is the main area of conflict and conflict for four centuries between Turkey and Russia."
"If Russia closes access to the sea for Ukraine and succeeds in dominating the northern shores of the Black Sea, it will certainly be half a disaster for Turkey," he said.
The Italian analyst explains that "the conflict in Ukraine is something that can have consequences that directly affect Turkey's national interests and security. "Do not forget that Turkey has developed a very deep relationship with Ukraine in recent years, while it is beneficial to remember that third-generation Turkish drones use Ukrainian-made engines."
"Very deep concern"
In fact, Turkey is the only NATO country that has not imposed sanctions on Russia and keeps its airspace open to the Russians, says Daniele Santoro.
The balanced stance that Turkey continues to hold allows it to maintain the confidence of the Ukrainians. At the same time, it maintains contacts with the Kremlin, which is to the benefit of both the United States and several European countries, he says.
He points out, however, that there is certainly very deep concern in Ankara. Because it is clear that if the Black Sea becomes a Russian lake it will increase Russian pressure on the straits. In the Black Sea, the only way out for Russia is through the Straits of Constantinople and Canakkale.
Turkey has decided to close the straits to all warships, including those of Russia. It is clear that, as was the case during the Cold War, Russia will become a sovereign power in the Black Sea. The conflict between Turkey and Russia that has been going on for at least four centuries over the straits will increase greatly, the Italian analyst concludes.
Daniele Santoro's analysis on Italian television caused a sensation in Turkey and was posted on social media (below) with Turkish subtitles, which were translated by tourkikanea.gr.