The war in Syria will hardly end soon, US analysts estimate, pointing to tomorrow's tripartite meeting between Putin, Erdogan and Rouhani in Ankara on Wednesday.
According to the same analysis, the three leaders of the largest armies currently operating on Syrian soil, especially considering that through Donald Trump the Americans declare that they will soon leave and let others handle the issue. As can be seen from the tripartite summit of Russia, Turkey and Iran, which clearly concerns the future of Syria, a very important factor is missing. The voice of the people living in this country. The Syrians.
What does this mean in practice? The tripartite meeting may create the prospect of an agreement on what the status quo in Syria will look like in the future, but it will at best be a short-term solution. This is because without Syria participating in these talks, this would mean that the real causes of the war in this much-tortured country would remain unresolved, even if Damascus did exactly what Russia and Iran would do.
Iran is reportedly seeking access to the Mediterranean as well as a passageway to the Iraqi capital so that it can gradually approach areas that put further pressure on Israel. Russia wants to maintain its naval and air base that will give it access to the Mediterranean.
Turkey is reportedly already satisfied as the paramilitary groups it controls today maintain control west of the Euphrates River and Idlib. In the end, the Turks want the Sunni fighters to create their own communities to which they will be able to return in the future the millions of Syrian refugees who have now taken refuge in its territory.
For their part, the Americans maintain power and influence northeast of the emerging Kurdish enclave. They also aim to bring under control any ambitions Iran has in the region. They believe that Mr. Putin, Mr. Erdogan and Mr. Rouhani can smile and appear satisfied in front of the cameras tomorrow, but at the same time they know that they are actually walking in the "cracked glass" of Syria, analysts typically report.
