The moment of truth for the political future of Ursula von der Leyen and for the next day in the European Union has already arrived, as today, July 18 at one in the afternoon (Strasbourg time - 14:00 Greek time) the 720 MEPs that make up the new European Parliament will be asked to vote for or against the European Council's proposal for a second term of the German politician at the helm of the executive body of the European Union.
Von der Leyen's first and final battle
On June 9, Ursula von der Leyen received the anointing to re-claim the presidency of the Commission, after behind-the-scenes consultations that took place in Brussels, between the leaders from the European People's Party, prominently Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Donald Tusk, Olaf Solz and Pedro Sanchez from the Socialists and Emmanuel Macron and Mark Rutte from the Liberals. However, the final battle will be fought today in Strasbourg.
In order to secure a second term as president of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen needs an absolute majority of the European Parliament. Which means it needs 361 votes out of a total of 720 MEPs. On paper, the result seems assured, as the three polar groups that support it, i.e. EPP, Social Democrats and Liberals, together number 401 MEPs, while MEPs from the political group of the Greens, which was defeated in the European elections, may vote in favor of nomination of Ursula von der Leyen.
However, no one can say with absolute certainty whether 361 votes will actually be needed. As protothema.gr is informed, the 361 votes will be needed if there are indeed 720 MEPs. However, a small number of them may not have taken up their duties. According to EP regulation, an MEP may not take up their duties for three reasons. First, if he dies before the vote. Secondly, if he assumes a government position in the Member State from which he comes or, thirdly, if there is a case of a judicial investigation for a possible conflict of interest. Circumstances, which according to protothema.gr's sources, are valid, however the exact number of those who will not have the right to vote will be announced a few minutes before the vote on the re-election or not of Ursula von der Leyen.
In short, the fewer MEPs vote, the easier it will be to elect Ursula von der Leyen for a second term as president of the European Union's executive body.
Numbers and correlations
In 2019, Ursula von der Leyen succeeded Jean-Claude Juncker as president of the Commission with just 9 votes more than the absolute majority required.
According to the latest estimates from Strasbourg, a percentage of the order of 10% - 12% of MEPs belonging to the three political groups that officially support Mrs von der Leyen (EPP, Social Democrats and Liberals) will either abstain or vote against her . Unlike most national parliaments in EU member states, MPs can ignore the official position of their political group and vote according to their conscience and the interests of their constituents without risking expulsion.
In this context, Ursula von der Leyen met with MEPs of the fourth largest political group in the EP, the European Conservatives and Reformists, the group "controlled" by Georgia Meloni, in an attempt to manage to secure at least a small part of the 78 MEPs, most of whom are waiting for a nod from the Italian Prime Minister on the position they will take in today's crucial vote in Strasbourg.
The president of the Commission herself seems to be trying to strike a balance between the Greens and the far-right ECR, promising the former that the European Commission will stick to its climate goals and the latter, that these environmental protection goals could to become more "flexible". The political groups that are openly against the re-election of Ursula von der Leyen are the Left, the far-right political group Europe of Sovereign Nations and the also far-right "Patriots".
However, the first key vote that took place in Strasbourg and concerned the re-election of Roberta Metzola to the presidency of the EP, showed that the so-called "government majority" in the EP (i.e. Center Right, Social Democrats and Liberals with the conditional support of the Greens and the ECR) she remained steadfast in her very first test.
The decision of the Court of Justice of the EU on the contracts of the vaccines against Covid -19
In this context came the decision of the Court of Justice of the EU, which just one day before the crucial vote in Strasbourg ruled that the Commission under the presidency of Ursula Von der Leyen lost a controversial case of transparency on the contracts of coronavirus vaccines, as according to the EU's highest court, the Commission did not give sufficient access to the purchase contracts.
In this context, the political group of the Left is asking for an explanation from President von der Leyen, with the Commission responding that as an executive body it should have guaranteed both vaccine purchases and the rights of European taxpayers.
The scripts
Tonight's bet is whether Ursula von der Leyen can get more votes than the 401 of the three political groups supporting her. In such a case, it will be an absolute success both for her and for the political groups that supported her, and of course for a complete failure of the Left and far-right formations, as the EP will vote for the best choice of the European Council and not just the least bad choice.
In the event that Ursula von der Leyen does not receive the necessary votes, then she withdraws from the limelight. And according to the EU Treaties, within 30 days the European Council must propose to the European Parliament a new person for the presidency of the EU's executive body. And all this must be done within August. When almost nothing works in Brussels and Strasbourg.
Source: protothema.gr