The four scenarios of the elections in Turkey

retzep tagip erntogan Tagip Erdogan, Turkey

The most difficult election of the last decade for Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan is considered the June 24 election as for the first time there is a risk that the Justice and Development Party (AKP) will lose not only the majority in parliament but also the presidency of the country. In an election interview last night, Tayyip Erdogan admitted for the first time that if his party fails to secure a majority of the 300 seats in parliament, then it will seek alliances.
There are four possible scenarios for this election and in this election nothing is prescribed. Even the polls are contradictory. Others predict a victory for the Turkish President in the first round and others predict a second round. However, no company has so far given results for the possible second round that may take place on July 8 if there is no result from the first round on June 24. Although all companies have the results for such a scenario, they avoid publishing them in order not to influence the voters, as they say. 
Erdogan election from first round
First, for Tayyip Erdogan to win in the first round as well, according to opinion polls on behalf of his party, taking the majority of 300 seats in parliament. In order for this scenario, which is the best for the AKP and Tayyip Erdogan, to take place, Erdogan will have to win the first round and the AKP will get such percentages in the parliament that it can have a majority of seats. If the AKP gets a percentage between 44-46% predicted by the most optimistic polls, the pro-Kurdish HDP party will have to stay out of parliament, not exceeding the 10% threshold to get the 300 seats needed for a majority in parliament. . If the HDP re-enters parliament, the sum of the AKP's percentages with the far-right MHP party will have to exceed 50% in order for them to win the 300 seats together and continue their alliance after the elections. 
Election of Erdogan in the second round
The second scenario is for a second round of presidential elections between Tayyip Erdogan and Muharrem Ince of the main opposition CHP party, which will be won by Tayyip Erdogan. Such a scenario favors the Turkish President again, but the AKP voters are very worried about the possibility of a second round because for the first time they see the opposition so united against the Turkish President. Far right, left and Islamists united for the first time. They are afraid of the second round because they see the pro-Kurdish party moving towards Muharrem Ince. Muharrem Ince has already made great openings to the Kurds, believing that he will have them with him. He even visited the candidate of the pro-Kurdish party Demirtas in prison and from the statements of Demirtas it seems that if there is a second round he will support Ince. 
Ince election in the second round
The third scenario is for Tayyip Erdogan to lose in the second round and for Muharrem Ince to be elected President. However, in the opposition, and especially in the Ince camp, there is a great deal of optimism and even certainty that they will win and a new era will begin in Turkey. In fact, especially for Inze, it is commented that he is a very dynamic candidate that the party has never had before, that he will far exceed the party percentages. Even if he loses, many see him as the next leader of the party.
Election of Erdogan without a majority in parliament
The fourth scenario, which is probably the most likely, is for Tayyip Erdogan to win the presidency but for his party not to get 300 seats in parliament. However, Tayyip Erdogan himself gave the answer to this scenario last night on a radio show. He said that if they do not manage to get 300 then there may be an alliance. "We will see on Sunday night. Once the AKP-MHP alliance takes 300 seats, the issue will be over. "If it stays below 300 then a coalition may be sought, that is another matter," he said.

However, Tayyip Erdogan is very comfortable. He does not seem to be afraid of losing the presidency. But he is afraid for the majority in parliament. That is why he had called on the people to vote for him in the presidency, but also for the AKP to vote at the same time, because without a majority they will not be able to produce work.