With the phrase "No more Mr Nice Guy", the image of him holding a military weapon in front of a mountain where explosions and spikes are taking place, Donald Trump "hit" in a post he uploaded to Truth Social.
At the same time, he calls on Tehran to hurry up and decide "smartly", indirectly threatening that if this is not done, US and Israeli military operations against Iran will restart.
"Iran can't find its way. They don't know how to sign a non-nuclear agreement. They'd better come to their senses quickly!" he wrote characteristically.
At the top of the new power structure in Iran, the Revolutionary Guards are not backing down against Trump
Two months after the start of the war with the United States and Israel, Iran appears without an undisputed supreme religious leader, with power shifting to the Revolutionary Guards, a fact that directly affects Tehran's stance in contacts with Washington.
At the top of the new power structure in Iran, the Revolutionary Guards are not backing down against Trump
The assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on the first day of the clashes and the elevation of his wounded son, Mojtaba Khamenei, marked a radical change in the Islamic Republic's power structure. Although formally at the top, Mojtaba is said to be limited to ratifying decisions made by the military and institutions, without exercising direct leadership.
“Important deals probably go through him,” said Iranian analyst Aras Azizi, “but I can’t imagine him bypassing the National Security Council. How could he oppose those who are running the war?”
According to officials and analysts, the war pressure has concentrated real power in a narrow circle around the Supreme National Security Council, the office of the supreme leader, and mainly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which now dominates both military strategy and key political decisions.
"The Iranians are extremely slow in their responses. There doesn't seem to be a unified decision-making structure," said a senior Pakistani official briefed on the negotiations between Tehran and Washington.
Aragchi and Ghalibaf in diplomacy, however the final word is with the commander of the Guards
At the diplomatic level, Iran is represented by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, while Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, a former commander of the Guards, also plays a key role. However, on the ground, the central figure is considered to be the commander of the Guards, Ahmad Vahidi, who is said to have played a key role even on the night the ceasefire was announced.
Tehran has submitted a new proposal to Washington, which envisages phased talks with the nuclear issue postponed until the war is over and the dispute over navigation in the Persian Gulf is resolved. The United States, however, insists that the nuclear issue must be put on the table from the start.
Analyst Alan Ayre estimates, speaking to Reuters, that neither side appears willing to back down. "Both believe that time is working in their favor," he noted, noting that Iran relies on its geostrategic influence in the Strait of Hormuz, while the United States is betting on economic pressure.
The shift in the power structure
The new power structure in Iran reflects a deeper shift from religious leadership to the military apparatus. In practice, the Guards’ ideology determines strategy, and decision-making is firmly in their hands. With the country at war and Ali Khamenei out of the picture, no actor within the system has the power or ability to resist them, even if they wanted to, according to people with access to internal discussions. The choice facing Iran’s leadership is no longer between moderation and hardline policies, but between hardline and even harderline policies.
“We went from divine authority to hard power,” commented former US negotiator Aaron David Miller, underscoring the dominance of the Revolutionary Guards. “From the influence of the clerics to the influence of the Revolutionary Guards. This is how Iran is governed,” he stressed.
Despite intense military and economic pressure from the United States and Israel, the Iranian system of power appears cohesive, with no apparent cracks or signs of internal collapse. Decisions are now made collectively by security institutions, with Mojtaba Khamenei acting as a coordinating link.
According to analysts, a clear strategy has been formulated: avoiding a generalized war, maintaining negotiating power, and exiting the conflict with a strengthened political and military position.
Source: protothema.gr
