The upcoming US presidential election is locked in a duel between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
Joe Biden's successor must immediately convince Americans that she can make a difference, as polls show.
The past nine days have featured some of the wildest twists and turns in US presidential election history. On July 13, former President Donald Trump survived an assassination attempt two days before the start of the Republican National Convention. Then yesterday, Sunday, President Joe Biden announced he was withdrawing from the 2024 race, an unprecedented move for a sitting president who was his party's front-runner.
Biden's departure brought to the fore the name that is about to pull the Democrats uphill in the presidential contest in the highly polarized US climate.
That person is Kamala Harris, the prosecutor who according to the latest press information is locked in as the presidential candidate to duel with Donald Trump, receiving the support of a majority - at least 1.967 - of the delegates of the Democratic Party at its convention in August.
The shadow of the president
As axios.com reports, Harris is narrowly trailing former President Trump in the most recent national polls – approaching similar rates as President Biden. At this point it is important to emphasize that usually at polling level the acceptance or not of a president also follows his/her vice president.
This is a parallel course that is also confirmed in the case of the Biden-Harris duo, where they approach similar percentages.
But the difference lies in the perspective, with Kamala Harris looking like the best choice to mobilize the party's voters to enter the presidential election battle, changing the facts. This perspective will become clear when Harris's nomination is officially locked in August at the party convention, a nomination that will also mark the political "unhooking" of the vice president from Biden.
Milestone the disastrous debate
Regarding polls, he points out that none have been conducted since Biden's historic withdrawal on Sunday. Based on all the polls that have been conducted, in the last month or so the following emerges:
Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris by 1,5 percentage points in an average of 11 national polls taken after Biden's disastrous June 27 debate, according to the Washington Post. In the same polls, Biden trails Trump by 1,9 percentage points.
Ahead of June's presidential debate, many polls showed Biden leading Harris over Trump — something Biden supporters have repeatedly raised as an argument for the US president to remain in the race. However, the debate changed the facts. Post-debate polls tend to show Harris doing slightly better than Biden.
In nine national polls before the debate, Harris underperformed Biden by about 3 points on average against Trump, but in 25 polls after the debate she only underperformed Biden by about 1 point on average.
Trump remains ahead in the polls
A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted last week — before Biden withdrew and after the debate — showed Harris trailing Trump while Biden trailed by 2 points among registered voters.
And a CBS/YouGov poll, also conducted last week, found Harris ahead of Biden in a hypothetical matchup with Trump. However, both Democrats trailed Trump, with Harris trailing Trump by 3 points and Biden by 5 points.
Polls at the state level are limited at this point, with no more than four conducted in the last month in any one state, NBC news said in a report. Based on polls at the three-state level, Harris is lagging behind Biden's margin over Trump.
In the aggregate of this limited set of polls, Harris trails Trump by about 3 points in Wisconsin (Biden trails by about 2 points), by nearly 5 in Pennsylvania (Biden trails by about 4) and by 5 in Michigan (Biden falls short by about 2).
Can the election of Kamala Harris become the necessary fuel for the Democrats?
Harris will certainly be able to mount a more dynamic campaign than Biden, and the characteristics of her candidacy may mobilize the base more than in a re-election bid for the US president.
Harris will now have a chance to reintroduce herself to voters and set out her vision for the country. But it will also become the primary target of Republican attacks on issues such as immigration. A key question is whether he can win the support of social groups drifting away from Biden — such as young and black voters — without losing demographic advantages such as older white voters, with whom Biden has remained relatively popular, the Economist notes.
But for Democrats who felt they were sliding toward defeat behind a candidate voters were increasingly unenthusiastic about, an alternative to Biden could shake up the waters, energize the party and give Democrats a chance to rebuild a strong anti-Trump current that could win the race, NBC notes.
Source: iefimerida.gr
