The sudden death of the North Korean leader could potentially be a factor in developments, both in North Korea itself and throughout Northeast Asia.
In other words, its impact would be twofold. On the domestic front, it would undermine the Kim dynasty. Even if it remained, we would witness various changes in Pyongyang's internal power system.
In the case of his father, the official announcement of his death in 2011 took place 24 10 hours after his death. This seems almost certain to happen again. The system needs some time to organize, but also to organize a well-tuned XNUMX-day ceremony of collective and more or less hysterical mourning.
Suppose a black-clad state television presenter undertakes to inform the public and from this point chaos scenes take place, with thousands of citizens sweating in the streets of the country. Photos and videos will go around the world. Military raids, a "national mourning meeting" in which all North Koreans are ordered to observe three minutes of silence.
Kim's body will be placed in the Kumsusan Mausoleum in Pyongyang, where the bodies of his father and grandfather are on display in a glass coffin.
1. Continuation of the dynasty
The administration of the country has been a family affair for more than 70 years. Maintaining the status of the Kim dynasty will be the highest stake in the event of the sudden death of the North Korean leader. A prerequisite for maintaining this outdated, by Western standards, "theocratic" system is that Kim's successor comes from his bloodline. After all, the founder of the state is presented as a god, and his successor as "the son of God".
This can be seen from the first minute you arrive at Pyongyang International Airport. It is dominated by a huge portrait of Kim Il Sung, the founder of the state, but also of the son of Kim Jong Il, the father of the current leader Kim Jong Un. The only person who shares the same blood as Kim remains alive (including Kim appearing to have ordered the execution of his uncle and brother for alleged treason) and is part of the political establishment is Kim Yoo Jong's younger sister. On the contrary, Kim Jong-chol's brother never participated in the public, as their father had rejected him as "weak".
2. The sister… but with support
From the death of their father in 2011 until today, 30-year-old Yo Yong is always by her brother's side. Manages the North Korean leader's public appearances, appointments and accounting. To some extent he has received some training, in case he needs to take the reins. But is that enough to make her the first female head of state? It is, after all, a deeply patriarchal state and even this, the most powerful woman in the country, can be treated with skepticism by the political elite.
For the people of Jerusalem, Kim Pyong-il, who is the father of their father's brother, may be asked to play the role of its political mentor. Maybe he is the one who will officially take over the country. Kim Pyong-il has served as a diplomat abroad for four decades. He recently returned to Pyongyang and continues to play an active role. She could be the head of an "expanded leadership" that would support and guide her sister as head of state. A transitional period is also possible, during which this collective team will lead the country. For a while, though, as the country without a successor from the Kim family is faithful without a god.
3. lockdown to avoid chaos
A general national lockdown of the country can not be ruled out, in order to avoid any kind of unrest and social chaos. That would have prevented a mass exodus from the country or anything else that might have caused instability. China may also further fortify its border with North Korea.
Waiting for developments…
