Turkey: The latest poll predicts two rounds of elections

20180518 2 30457703 33882548 Elections, Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey

The latest poll predicts two rounds of presidential elections before tomorrow's June 24th elections in Turkey, while the pro-Kurdish HDP party is expected to enter parliament. Political analysts describe tomorrow's elections as the most critical that will lead Turkey from the parliamentary system to the presidential one. Still others say it is the most interesting election in Turkish history.

However, according to the AKAM poll, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan is expected to receive 44,5% tomorrow. In fact, the company predicts that in the context of statistical error, the lowest percentage that Tayyip Erdogan can receive is 41,5% and the highest 47%. The official opposition CHP candidate Muharrem Ince is expected to receive 28,3% and the highest percentage he can receive in the context of statistical error is 30,5% and the lowest 26%. For Meral Aksener of the Good Party a percentage of 13,5% is predicted (the lowest percentage is 11,5% and the highest is 15,5%), for Temel Karamolaoglou of the Bliss Party is predicted 2% (1,5% the lowest percentage and 3% the highest). 

For the candidate of the pro-Kurdish HDP party Selahattin Demirtas, 11,5% is predicted (10,5% the lowest percentage and 13,5% the highest percentage). The company also forecasts 45,9% for the AKP-MHP alliance while for the alliance of the opposition parties CHP-Good Party-Bliss Party it forecasts 40,4% and 13,4% for the pro-Kurdish party. 
Erdogan's fear of a second round
Political analysts comment that the biggest fear of the AKP and the Turkish President is the second round. Tayyip Erdogan in a possible second round theoretically has nothing to get from the other parties as everything is expected to support Ince's candidacy by raising his percentage sharply. Of course, this will depend on whether the voters will really obey the choices of the party that voted in the first round of elections. Will the voters of the far-right Good Party and the Islamic Bliss Party vote for the leftist candidate Ince? The AKP hopes that they will not do so, but the CHP, due to the polarization caused by Erdogan, does not believe that this will lead to the overthrow of Erdogan and Ince. In fact, last night Muharrem Ince said that what he sees is not only a 'wave' as analysts describe it but a 'tsunami'.
In fact, the estimates are that despite the efforts of the government mechanism, it seems that the HDP enters the parliament managing to pass the electoral threshold of 10%. This means that the AKP-MHP alliance is losing its majority in parliament. But Erdogan's reference to an alliance in the event that they fail to win more than 300 seats has raised new questions, as to whether he will seek new alliances and new maneuvers in the second round, this time knocking on the door of the Good Party or the Bliss Party. or even the pro-Kurdish party. However, it is not at all certain that he will find their door open for such a dialogue. 
Economy is a fiery ball
However, everyone agrees that whoever wins will take in his hands a fiery ball called economy. The devaluation of the pound is a serious problem in the country's economy. The current account deficit of $ 35 billion reached $ 57 billion in one year. In order to deal with the problems, there should at least be austerity, to reduce imports. Turkey is facing a difficult economic period.
The second question that arises after the elections, whoever is elected, is how the new presidential system will work and what will be the relations of the president with the parliament. Not only the people but even the politicians themselves have not yet realized how this system will work and how the separation of the executive from the legislature will take place, without the ruling party having the absolute majority in parliament as has been the case until today. .


Source: AlphaNews.live