Turkey: How US pressure is affecting and why Erdogan is uniting the EU

20180518 2 30457703 33882548 ELECTORS, Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey

The possibility of a surprise in the upcoming elections in Turkey is seen by the think tank, "Foundation for the Defense of Democracies" (FDD). 

Dr. Akan Erdemir, a representative of the Foundation, explains in his analysis that: 

"The Turkish opposition will win the majority on June 24, and the second round will be marginal. These are the forecasts according to the polls " 

At the same time, there is a lot of skepticism in Washington about whether there will be fair and free elections, he said. 

He says he belongs to a small minority that sees "a change in the psychosynthesis of the electoral process in Turkey."

"We can all be surprised on July 8. "We can see a new Turkey that will get on the rails to become a liberal democracy with controls, balances and laws."

If defeated, Tayyip Erdogan will not be able to return as AKP leader to lead the opposition.

"He has burned many bridges not only with the opposition but also within his party. "This despair is forcing him to take more steps to maintain himself in the Turkish political system."

According to Erdemir's analysis, the US will intensify its pressure as the elections approach. Part of this pressure is the transfer of F-35 fighters and explains the rationale that prevails in the US Congress.

"There are two sides: those who want immediate harsh measures against Turkey and those who want a silent diplomacy behind closed doors."

As for Europe, the Turkish President seems to be lucky.

"Erdogan is lucky that at the moment the world is going through a phase of isolation. Left and Right populism are rising at the same time. Erdogan likes to divide and rule and wants to raise these issues through bilateral relations in European countries. This allows him to extract concessions from his interlocutors. Although it has not been so successful so far "

As he notes, Berlin and Washington are already moving more united against the Erdogan government, as the Turkish President makes anti-Western statements. 

Foreign funds are leaving

In other news, Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Simsek said on Sunday that foreign funds had begun to flow as international monetary policy concerns in Turkey were largely addressed during meetings with investors in London.

"Monetary policy concerns have largely been allayed," he said. This is very clear. "As a result, capital inflows have begun," Simsek said in an interview with Kanal7.

Turkey's currency has fallen to about 20% this year, driven by investor concerns about central bank independence and the Tayyip Erdogan government's tighter monetary policy control following the June 24th elections.

Erdogan, a self-proclaimed "enemy of interest rates," wants lower borrowing costs to fuel credit growth and economic expansion.

"The devaluation of the pound after the meetings is due to the statements of the rating agency and is partly related to the foreign exchange demand of companies and citizens," Simsek also said on Sunday.

On Friday, Moody's downgraded Turkey, saying it was concerned about financial management and eroding investor confidence. Fitch posted negative comments on the ratings of 25 Turkish banks.

The central bank raised interest rates by 300 basis points to 16,50 percent in an emergency session last month to put a pound below the record high of 4,9290 against the US dollar.