Heat deaths in Europe could triple by the end of the 21st century, with southern countries such as Greece, Italy and Spain most at risk, according to a new study.
Cold may be causing more deaths in Europe than heat – which last year killed almost 50.000 people in the Old Continent – but the study published in the journal Lancet Public Health finds that along with rising temperatures and an aging vulnerability to high population temperatures will gradually increase the number of victims.
The role of climate change
If the global temperature rises by an average of three or four degrees Celsius, deaths from the heat will far exceed those from the cold, according to the British newspaper The Guardian. The study's findings suggest that climate change may pose "unprecedented" challenges to national health systems, particularly during heatwaves.
"Many more heat-related deaths are expected as the climate warms and populations age, while cold-related deaths decline slightly," notes one of the study's authors, David Garcia Leon of the Commission's Joint Research Centre.
Up to 129.000 heat deaths per year with a 3C temperature rise
From an average of 44.000 heat deaths a year in Europe today, the number could jump to 129.000 with a temperature rise of three degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels.
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But even if countries succeed in taking measures to limit temperature rise to 1,5 degrees Celsius, annual deaths on the Old Continent from heat and cold could rise from 407.000 today to 450.000 by the end of the century, according to with the study, released against the backdrop of heat waves sweeping European countries.
Nightmarish predictions about the consequences of extreme heat
The projected tripling of heat deaths in Europe "isn't the whole picture", says Madeleine Thomson of the health research organization Welcome, who was not involved in the research, citing research linking extreme temperatures to miscarriages. fetuses and with deterioration of mental health.
"And there are the indirect consequences: We have already seen how extreme heat can destroy crops, ignite forest fires, destroy vital infrastructure and hurt the economy, all of which will have an impact on our lives," he emphasizes.
The risk is greater for the countries of the European South
In their study, the researchers took into account data from 854 cities in Europe to calculate deaths from heat and cold in the Old Continent.
And they found that the heat will cause more deaths across Europe, but southern countries such as Greece, Italy, Spain and parts of France are most at risk.
They predict that deaths from uncomfortably high temperatures will increase by 13,5% if the global average temperature rises by three degrees Celsius, and that most victims will be elderly people over 85 years old.
What do the scientists suggest?
The researchers are urging European governments to consider policies to reduce the number of deaths, such as investing in hospitals, creating action plans and insulating buildings.
They also pointed out that the predicted increase in heat deaths is due to changes in Europe's population structure and climate. "If we want to avoid reaching the worst-case scenario, it is fundamental to address the root of the problem: greenhouse gas emissions," said Eliza Gallo, an epidemiologist at ISGlobal who has studied heat-related mortality in Europe.
The researchers concluded that adaptation efforts should focus on areas with high unemployment, poverty, structural economic changes, migration and aging populations, which are less able to adapt to climate change disasters and were hit hardest by the increase in deaths due to heat.
Source: iefimerida.gr