After US President Joe Biden's troubled performance against Donald Trump in last Thursday's debate, some Democrats have openly questioned whether the 81-year-old politician should be replaced as the party's candidate for the 2024 election. According to Reuters, this could be done through specific procedures, however it is not a simple matter.
The news outlet spoke with Elaine Kamarck, a fellow at the Brookings Institution think tank, a member of the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and author of the book "Primary Politics," about the presidential nomination process.
The following Q&A guide draws heavily on interviews Kamark gave to Reuters and sheds light on the procedures in place for the rare occasion a White House candidate needs to be replaced a few months before an election.
Q: What options do Democrats have?
A: Until now, the Democratic Party has had no alternative plan for the election, other than a Biden nomination. The American president had practically no opponent in the claim of the Democrats' anointing ahead of the November ballot. His candidacy for the election will be officially confirmed later this summer, so there is still time for a change, which could be triggered by the following scenarios: a) Biden decides on his own to withdraw before the official announcement of his candidacy , b) To have other contenders for the anointing appear who will try to "win" the delegates he has collected, or c) To announce his withdrawal from the race after the Democratic convention in Chicago in August, thereby leaving the National Committee of Democrats to choose the candidate who will face Trump on the November ballot.
E: What's the next step?
A: Right now, the process is very much up to Biden. He will have to agree to withdraw from the race or face another contender for the anointing (so close to the polls) who will try to force him to resign. So far, Biden has shown no intention of withdrawing, and no other contenders have openly emerged. In fact, some of the top Democratic front-runners to replace him — Vice President Kamala Harris and California Gov. Gavin Newsom — passionately defended him after the debate, showing their support but drawing comparisons to him. their composed way of speaking and Biden's unhinged positions in the debate against Trump.
Q: What happens if Biden resigns?
A: Biden has spent the last few months rallying the support of nearly 4.000 Democratic delegates, winning primaries in US states and territories. Under normal circumstances, these delegates would vote for him, but the rules do not compel them to do so: They are free to vote according to their conscience, so they may end up voting for another anointing candidate. If Biden "releases" his delegates by dropping out of the race, more than one Democratic candidate may emerge to claim their support to win the nomination.
Q: Who could replace Biden?
A: Several contenders could enter the fray, but there is no clear favorite. Vice President Harris would certainly be high on the list, but she has her own troubles due to her poor polling performance. The US Constitution states that the vice president succeeds the president if he dies or becomes incapacitated, but does not affect the internal party process for selecting a candidate.
Several names have been floated within the Democratic Party as possible contenders for the anointing: California Gov. Newsom, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker. However, all of them have so far actively supported Biden in his campaign, giving speeches and attending fundraising events.
Q: How could the new candidate be selected?
A: Big-name Democrats interested in the position should openly compete for the nomination. Candidates must collect signatures from 600 convention delegates to be nominated. In 2024, there are expected to be approximately 4.672 delegates, including 3.933 "committed" delegates and 739 "independent" delegates, participating through an automatic process in the conference. If no one wins the support of a majority of delegates, then there will be a "negotiated convention" in which all delegates again act as free agents and negotiate with the party leadership to nominate a candidate.
In this case rules will be established and roll call votes will be taken for the contenders. It may take several rounds of voting for someone to gather a majority and win the anointing. The last "debated convention" in which the Democrats failed to nominate a candidate on the first ballot was in 1952.
Q: What if Biden retires after the convention?
A: If Biden resigns after the August convention, the 435-member Democratic National Committee (DNC) will choose a new nominee. The members will meet in a special meeting to elect him/her.
Q: Who are these 435 members of the Democratic National Committee?
A: They include men and women in equal proportion and representatives from various organisations, such as heads of trade unions, LGBTI groups and groups for the rights of racial minorities. Of the total members, 75 are appointed by the president, while the rest are elected in their respective states.
Q: Who could nominate Biden's replacement in this case?
A: In order for someone to nominate a candidate to replace Biden on the ballot, that person would have to have the support of a minimum number of members of the Democratic National Committee – perhaps 60, although the exact number will be determined by the DNC's rules committee. DNC that will set the rules of the process before it begins. There will probably be speeches to nominate candidates and speeches to declare support. Many candidates could be nominated initially and then gradually the list reduced.
Q: How would these votes be counted?
A: In the above scenario, the Democratic National Committee would likely meet in Washington, D.C., and the vote counting would take place there. Ballots would be coded, signed and collected in person. If the vote had to take place very close to the day of the presidential election (November 5) and there was not enough time to organize it, then it would probably be done electronically.
