France, Europe's second largest economy, is in political and economic turmoil.
Prime Minister Michel Barnier decided yesterday to invoke Article 49,3 of the French Constitution, which allows him to legislate in the absence of the French National Assembly, to close the issue of social security spending in the 2025 state budget.
By invoking the disputed article, it bypasses a parliamentary vote and takes full political responsibility for adopting the budget, which would inevitably trigger a motion of no confidence from the Left.
The head of the left-wing LFI parliamentary group, Mathilde Panot, and her far-right party, Marie Le Pen, have, as expected, tabled a motion of censure against the government, which if passed (likely next Wednesday) will lead to the downfall of the government and in the failure to pass the 2025 state budget.
Barnier's government, given that these parties jointly have a parliamentary majority, is currently facing a clear risk of falling.
The opposition parties have a combined parliamentary majority, controlling 332 of the 577 seats in the French National Assembly.
The no-confidence vote is expected on Wednesday and if successful, Michel Barnier's fragile coalition will be the first French government to be forced out by a no-confidence vote since 1962 when Charles de Gaulle was president. The left has vowed to topple the Barnier government, but it needs the votes of the far-right to do so.
Barnier emphasized yesterday in his speech on the budget, addressing the parliamentarians, that "from now on everyone must assume their responsibilities and I must take mine".
The reactions of Melanchon and Le Pen
Jean-Luc Mélenchon defended the filing of a motion of impeachment against the government, speaking of a "coup d'état" by Barnier using Article 49.3.
"What arrogance, at the last minute, Michel Barnier adds eight amendments that no one has read or studied. What arrogance," he said, among other things.
"The 2025 budget foresees new looting of pensions. The vast majority of French people have everything to gain from rejecting this plan," Melanchon said.
For her part, Marine Le Pen pointed out that she will vote for the censure motion of the Left, while the RN will submit its own.
He spoke of "decisions included in this very unfair social security funding bill."
Regarding the motion of censure, Le Pen said that "a motion of censure has been filed by the National Alarm and we will vote to censure the government."
It should be noted that Barnier withdrew the proposal to increase the tax on electricity last week, bowing to pressure from the far right. Le Pen's party has called for pensions to rise to a rate that covers inflation. RN MP Marine Le Pen had given the French prime minister until yesterday to meet her party's demands for next year's budget, or she had threatened to support a motion of no confidence with the Left.
Why France cannot go to early elections
The political crisis gripping France comes just weeks after the collapse of Olaf Scholz's German coalition. The two most powerful states of the EU are in governmental instability. France, however, cannot be led to early elections before the summer of 2025 like Germany, as the Constitution stipulates that at least 12 months must have passed since the previous election. The only way to hold early elections in France is for Emmanuel Macron to resign. He has categorically denied that he is planning such a thing, but more and more voices are calling for him to resign.
Guardian: There is no fear of a US-style shutdown in France - Macron's role
The Guardian, analyzing the rapid developments in France, notes that in the markets the concern is obvious, as the interest rate of the French bonds is approaching that of the corresponding Greek ones last week.
However, there is no fear of a US-style shutdown, as the French Constitution allows a government, even a caretaker one, to pass an emergency law, extending the previous year's budget for a few months so that public sector workers, for example, to continue to be paid.
On governing France, the Guardian notes that if the RN joins forces with the NFP to oust Barnier, Macron has a number of options. However, he is constitutionally limited as he dissolved parliament in June and cannot do so again until June 2025.
The French president could simply reinstate Barnier as prime minister, a move that would be seen as defiant by parliament and therefore considered unlikely by most analysts.
He could also ask France's parties to try to form a new coalition, this time with more support.
Macron could also appoint a technocratic government to oversee the administration of France for another six months or resign, triggering new presidential and parliamentary elections.
Source: iefimerida.gr
