The process of joining the European Union for nine more member states, including Ukraine, would cost the 27 more than 256 billion euros, according to Commission calculations.
This would force countries such as Greece and Cyprus, which receive European funds, not only to stop receiving but also to pay for the aid of the new members, according to a study leaked by the Commission.
The huge cost of enlargement was revealed as 51 European leaders travel to Granada, Spain for a European Union summit to discuss the next steps for the nine countries in the process of joining the EU.
"All member states should pay more and receive less from the EU budget. European officials are quoted as saying that 'many member states that until now only receive without paying will be hurt by the accession of new members,'" the document says of the EU Council Secretariat, leaked to the Financial Times.
The countries to join are Turkey (1999), Skopje (since 2005), Montenegro (since 2010), Serbia (since 2012), Albania (since 2014), Moldova (since 2022) , Bosnia and Herzegovina (from 2022) and Ukraine (2022), while Georgia and Kosovo are potential candidates.
Ukraine, by far the largest of the nine countries listed as potential candidates, will be entitled to 186 billion euros over the next seven years.
Ukraine in focus
This money will form part of the reconstruction costs of Ukraine, which has a computer at about 400 billion euros by the World Bank.
Enlargement has become one of the most pressing issues for the EU, with leaders meeting on Friday to discuss key issues such as the budget, the number of seats in the European Parliament, the future of the common agricultural policy and whether an enlarged bloc will could maintain its unanimous position in some areas.
It is also being debated whether the EU should move to a two-speed process, allowing member states to gradually enter the EU, or whether they should all join at once. European officials however argue that the two speeds cannot be implemented as "either they are members or they are not".
A senior diplomat told the Guardian that the budget is expected to be the most difficult issue as it will have to be settled by 2027, when the next financial cycle for the EU begins. That way Brussels could show it is ready to accept countries such as Ukraine, Moldova and the Western Balkan states.
Earlier this year, the president of the European Council, Charles Michel, said that this deadline should be extended to 2030. However, the 2027 target is more likely.
Who will pay an additional 1,5 trillion euros?
The leaked document estimates that the EU budget would increase by 21% to €1,47 trillion if all nine countries joined. This would entail a significant increase in contributions for Germany, France and the Netherlands, with transition periods necessary to scale up funding.
The amount spent on agriculture will be shared with other countries as Ukraine is entitled to €95 billion over seven years, another cost that member states will have to consider.
In "return" Kiev has said it will contribute to the EU's food security as it is the world leader in grain, sunflower oil and poultry markets.
Another key fund, known as the cohesion fund, which provides money for infrastructure in less developed countries, will also be significantly affected by enlargement.
Under the current financial formula, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Slovenia, Cyprus, Malta and Lithuania will no longer be the recipients of these funds as the younger members will have to be strengthened.
Last month, the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said that the EU must immediately prepare for radical changes needed for Ukraine and other countries to become members.
There are concerns that while the EU has set reform targets for Ukraine, Moldova and the other seven countries in the queue for membership, it has yet to put forward detailed proposals for the changes needed in member states.
Source: Financial Times, Guardian
