CRS: The future of the Cyprus talks is uncertain

This is included in the congressional report on Cyprus of the Independent Congressional Research Service, which was published in early January (before the illegal elections in the occupied territories) by the analyst Vincent Morelli and has been the same title for almost 10 years. Cyprus: Reunification proves illusory ".

The extensive report (covering the talks of the last decade and being regularly updated) notes that both sides, although continuing to blame each other for the failure of Crans Montana, have fallen into a period of reflection, probably until "after the national January / February elections in both the north and the south ". However, he emphasizes, the next step in that time period faces several complications, listing three in particular.

"First, although the UN Secretary-General suggested that the United Nations be ready to host new talks in the framework of the structures of the previous negotiations, the Turkish Cypriots stated that the negotiations could not be resumed unless the United Nations agreed to change the framework. conversations ".

The American analyst states that if the new narrative coming from "northern Cyprus" is not just "test balloons" addressed to the international community, the start of any new round of negotiations after the 2018 elections seems ominous.

He notes that this was initially hinted at in a press conference after the end of the G20 summit, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, saying that it may be the end of the bi-zonal, bi-communal model of resolving the Cyprus problem and that Turkey will continue efforts to resolve but not within the current parameters of the United Nations framework. He also said that Ankara will start thinking according to Plan B.

This, he adds, has been repeated by "leaders of the Turkish Cypriot government", such as Mr. Ertugrouloglou, who said that efforts to achieve a federation have ended and that Turkish Cyprus must look for ways to live side by side as neighbours".

Mr Moreli cites a report by Turkish leader Mustafa Akinci in August, in which he "put forward the idea of ​​two separate states living together on the island as members of the EU. The future of a 'federal' Cyprus has been raised by many. who are politically challenging Anastasiadis, who have also suggested that a federal solution may no longer be acceptable to many in the south. "

He further added that Akinci "would not return to endless negotiations, indicating that a deadline must be agreed for the talks to be resumed before they resume, another condition that Anastasiadis firmly rejects."

As a second possible complication, he lists the upcoming presidential elections in the Republic of Cyprus (and the "elections" in the occupied territories), noting that President Anastasiadis has already been criticized by his opponents "as part of the reason why the Crans Montana talks failed".

"Despite Anastasiadis' argument that he was ready to resume talks and that the election campaign would not have an impact on the substance of such talks, many observers agreed that he could not return to the negotiating table after two failed conferences and without what the Greek Cypriots would consider as a strong and public message from Ankara that the Turks would be ready to take security issues seriously. "Without this condition, which would not have arisen from Ankara, the resumption of talks has become unlikely for the Greek Cypriot leadership."

The American analyst quotes statements by candidate Nikola Papadopoulos, who announced a new strategy for resolving the Cyprus issue, according to which it is a matter of invasion and occupation and not a bi-communal conflict and that "the dangerous Anastasiadis compromises should be withdrawn." He also writes that security guarantees, invasive rights and Turkish troops must be withdrawn and Turkey must recognize the Republic of Cyprus. Also, Turkish settlers should not be allowed to cross into government-controlled areas, "the passports of the Republic should be removed by ministers and officials of the north, and the activity of foreign companies in the north should be declared illegal."

It also quotes statements by Messrs. Sizopoulou and Lillika, who stated that "the goal for a solution of a bi-zonal bi-communal federation in Cyprus may no longer be desirable".

He states that these issues are faced by President Anastasiadis in the election campaign and the Turkish Cypriots expect to hear what he will or will not say in the televised confrontation of the candidates, but also watch the power of his opponents in the polls. Similarly in relation to the "elections" in the occupied territories, he writes that perhaps the result puts Mr. Akinci in a more difficult position to resume talks.

The third possible complication, the American analyst names the research for hydrocarbons.

Although Ankara had obviously warned the energy companies, and indirectly France and Italy, not to proceed with the drilling, as they would risk "losing a friend", the drilling took place without incident. It was also reported that a Turkish naval frigate appeared in international waters off the coast of southern Cyprus. Greece responded by saying it was "ready to defend its sovereign rights", which was a sign of tensions between the two NATO members. Turkey reportedly sent its own ships into Cypriot waters in late 2017 to protest further research activities and said it would begin its own exploration of areas claimed by both Turkey and the Republic. "This could make it difficult for Anastasiadis, or for anyone elected president, to agree to restart the talks."

Mr. Moreli sees a new dimension in the spring on the political chessboard of the Cyprus settlement and is making a series of assumptions.

"The period from now until then (in the spring) presents an important decision-making point for Akinci and for those in the north who have increased their conditions for the resumption of talks. On the one hand, some observers believe that if Anastasiadis is re-elected, he may have more flexibility to state that he may be willing to step down from his "no troops, no guarantees" position, if that brings Akinci back to the table. with the existing United Nations framework. "Based on this, could Akinci believe that Anastasiadis is serious and agree to try again, or would it be too late?"

If, on the contrary, the analyst continues, the Turkish Cypriots and Ankara feel that the election campaign had a negative effect not only on Anastasiadis' perception of the concessions he could make to the Turkish Cypriots, but also on the general attitude of the Greek Cypriots towards these concessions. "Would the Turkish Cypriots agree to return to the negotiating table even under different circumstances?" If both sides disagree on the context in which the negotiations will be resumed, would it be Akinci's frustration and threats that he would pursue a Plan B too strong to overcome? "What if Serdar Denktash's initial proposal to hold a referendum in the north asking the Turkish Cypriots if they wanted the talks to continue was carried out by the new government and led to a resounding 'no'?"

The analyst admits that it is not clear what a Plan B means for the Turkish Cypriots. Some say it may involve a Turkish Cypriot move towards permanent secession, while others argue that "a Plan B could be an offer from both sides to resume negotiations only with the governing chapters on the table and do not discuss security issues until the other chapters have been agreed to the satisfaction of each side. The "nothing is agreed until an agreement is reached" approach would only apply to internal governance issues. Even if the two negotiators were willing to rule out anti-federal sentiment in both communities but could not turn the so-called governance capital convergences and agree on a new governance structure for the island within a reasonable time, the the issue of troops and security would have minimal consequences. "

Continuing his case, Mr. Morelli says that if the two sides reach an agreement on the future structure and governance of a new federal government, Mr. Akinci will have to determine whether that agreement would be enough to meet his expectations for the political and economic equality of the Turkish Cypriots and cohesion as a partner in Cyprus.

"If so, he could argue that the security of the Turkish Cypriots under the new federal structure and with the guarantees of EU law could be enough to reconsider his request or the need for Turkish troops or a permanent Turkish guarantee of security. At this point, an international multilateral conference could be convened by the United Nations to address security issues. "

The American analyst of the independent Congressional Research Service does not take into account either the citation of the facts, nor in his assessments, the conditions set for the resumption of the negotiations, the UN Secretary General, in the report on his good services, 28 September 2017.

Finally, regarding the conference in Crans Montana, he notes that "although Turkey was ready to discuss the withdrawal of most troops immediately after reaching an agreement, Ankara rejected the option of" zero troops and zero guarantees "and insisted on maintaining a small number of forces on the island for at least 15 years when the matter is reconsidered. "Turkey has refused to agree to any changes to its right to intervene in the north, although the Turkish Cypriots seemed to show some flexibility from Ankara in this regard, as the presence of a part of the Turkish military forces on the island could be used. to respond to any problems faced by the Turkish Cypriots in implementing the agreement ".

For the Greek Cypriots and Greece, he writes that they maintained their positions to abolish the Guarantee Treaty, "although Greece proposed a new" friendship treaty "between Greece, Turkey and Cyprus, which would obviously allow consultations on complaints about its non-implementation. agreement by any Cypriot side. Greece and the Greek Cypriots again insisted on the withdrawal of all Turkish troops from the island, although Anastasiadis was ready to accept a small number of Turkish soldiers to remain on the island, but only if this provision included a date for the final withdrawal of the the rest of the Turkish troops ".

Concluding, the 40-page report notes that all the issues raised in it "should wait until the spring of 2018, after the evaluation and implementation of the election results in both communities and depending on whether both sides can really return at the negotiating table. At this point, a final settlement for Cyprus remains illusory. "

Source: (KYPE / AZ / MM)