In Cyprus we can be relatively quiet, but not relaxed, internationalist Petros Zarounas told CNA in relation to the Israel-Iran conflict, adding that currently Israel's goals do not appear to be achieved while, as he said, he does not see the feasibility or usefulness of involving the British in aggressive operations against Iran.
Mr. Zarounas estimated that the fire that Israel and Iran are firing at each other may last for a month and stated that at present Israel's goals do not appear to be being achieved.
In relation to the possible involvement of other countries, he said that if there is a question mark for the US, there is not for the other countries, the European ones, saying that Britain, France and Germany have sent messages to both sides that they are willing to take action to reach a political compromise.
How Cyprus could be affected
Mr. Zarounas said that the British are sending reinforcements to their bases in the region, including Akrotiri. He said that these are mainly aircraft, and possibly anti-missile systems.
"However, I exclude whether or not they will be involved in operations against Iran. I do not think that this possibility exists, I consider it unlikely that such a thing will happen. What there is a possibility for is that they will contribute to repelling Iranian missile attacks, something they had done on previous occasions. Up to that point, there will be a possible British involvement if and when it arises," he stressed.
Therefore, to the extent, he said, that the bases are not involved, and are not involved in an aggressive manner, the risks for Cyprus are minimal.
"To the extent that they are involved, even defensively, there are some risks without them being that great. If there is active involvement of the bases offensively, then yes, the risk will be very serious, but the possibility of this happening is minimal because there is no such intention," said Mr. Zarounas.
Besides, he pointed out, the British do not have the weapons needed to destroy Iran's nuclear program; only the Americans have them.
"So, I don't see the feasibility or usefulness of the British getting involved in offensive operations against Iran. We can be relatively quiet, but not relaxed."
He said that we are monitoring developments at all levels and are moving accordingly to prevent certain risks, and this, he continued, we are doing through diplomatic and political contacts, with the activation of the EU, we also requested the convening of the EU Council of Foreign Ministers, which he described as a very good action.
Mr. Zarounas said that Nicosia is in communication with Britain, "because it is the actions of the British that will cause any danger, so we are in constant communication, we are preventing extreme scenarios and we are trying to keep things as low as possible."
At the same time, he said, we are also taking preventive measures, whether they have to do with the safety of Israeli nationals in Cyprus, or with the safety of Israeli civilian aircraft stationed in Cyprus.
"In general, we are ready for all scenarios and in this direction, those who make decisions should move in a systematic and serious manner in order to limit the risks that may arise," he stressed.
Attacks can last up to a month
Analyzing the situation, he said that at the moment we see the two sides returning fire against each other and said that "it seems that both have the potential to take it far, that is, I would estimate that we could be watching what we are watching today for a month."
Iran, he said, has several thousand missiles, while Israel has similar weapons, mainly bombs and missiles launched from aircraft in the case of Israel, and in the case of Iran, they are surface-to-surface missiles.
He said that currently Israel's goals do not seem to be achieved because it knew from the beginning that it did not have the means to completely destroy the Iranian nuclear program due to the fact that the most sensitive facilities are hidden deep in the ground and it does not have the appropriate bombs and bombers to hit them.
For this reason, he continued, Israel has invested and is investing in the possibility that at some point the US may intervene as they are the ones who possess the weapons systems suitable for neutralizing such well-hidden facilities.
In addition, he also referred to Iran's ability to have manufactured and used hypersonic missiles. Currently, Mr. Zarounas said, there is relative uncertainty as to whether it possesses such missiles or whether it has used such missiles against Israel, but there is also previous information according to which Iran possesses such missiles. He pointed out that only three countries in the world possess such missiles, Russia, China and Iran if and when it is confirmed.
"Such missiles would be equally dangerous for Israel or Iran's neighbors if and when Iran possesses such missiles. Consequently, Israel's goals are twofold. Both the destruction of the nuclear program, and the destruction of the missile program. If and when it succeeds - which at the moment does not seem possible - it will certainly succeed in delaying Iran's nuclear program."
On the other hand, he stressed, there are estimates that Israel's strikes could lead Iran to accelerate its program, "because now the Iranians will have realized that if they do not have nuclear weapons, then they will always be at the mercy of Israel's will."
He also pointed out the economic side of the attacks. He said that this is a huge economic cost for Israel, reaching 800 million dollars a day. The cost is generally significant, limiting the duration of the operations for both sides, either because their reserves will be exhausted or because the cost will exceed certain limits that their economies can withstand.
USA and Europeans
Regarding the role of other countries, he said that the US for years, despite Israel's urgings, has not chosen the violent destruction of Iran's nuclear program.
"Now, I think that initially a theater was played out, where Iran was given 60 days to negotiate, there were five rounds of meetings between Iranians and Americans, Iran showed no signs of compromise, even though there were compromise proposals, so I think the US considered that in addition to carrots (which were the compromise proposals), a stick should also be used, not their own, the Israeli one, so that the Iranians could be pressured and compromised."
Even today, he said, Mr. Trump is calling on Iran to return to the negotiating table. He said that there is a channel of communication through Oman, a country that has mediated in previous meetings, and he reminded that the meeting scheduled for yesterday would take place in Oman. “That channel remains open, now there is also armed pressure on Iran to accept a compromise.”
Regarding the involvement of other countries, he said that if there is a question mark for the US, there is no such question mark for other countries, the European ones. The European countries, he reminded, stated that they will only get involved if Israel is in danger. “They will not go in to attack Iran and the decisive thing here is for Iran to be hit by those who have the means,” said Mr. Zarounas.
He noted that Britain, France and Germany have sent messages to both sides that they are willing to take action to reach a political compromise.
Source: KYPE
