Sarigiannis: When do the models show a reduction in cases - The optimistic scenario

The models for the evolution of the pandemic were presented on the front page by the professor of Environmental Engineering, Demosthenes Sarigiannis.

Initially, the expert said that "the models show that the rise will continue until the 20th of the month at least, there will be a peak and there will be a de-escalation over a period of one month, until February.

The results of the last four days show a "braking", the real number of reproductions from 2,6 last week fell to 1,36, which shows this slowdown. This is interesting because it may indicate that we are very close to the peak, so at lower levels than we expected, and it could happen in the next 2-3 days. "

Asked if the models predicted the outbreak of the previous days, he replied that "we had seen that given the dynamics of Omicron, as it was formed in the United Kingdom, and putting these data on the population of Greece and on vaccination rates, showed that it would have this very very strong rise ".

Regarding the fears for a new outbreak, he explained that "the models showed that we should have had more cases, but which seem to fall if this trend continues. However, there are fears due to the days of the holidays when these cases are recorded, and we are waiting to see if these numbers today and tomorrow will be restrained or we will see the increase, "correcting" the numbers and following the initially predicted course ".

He stressed that "compared to Omicron, in the spring we will be much better, with very, very few cases in March, April. "The real question is whether a new variant will be found, which will create concern and greater risk."