The transmissibility index and the forecasts for the number of cases (TABLES)

Evidence for the course of the coronavirus pandemic in Cyprus was provided by the National Report published by the Ministry of Health.

 

Among other things, the National Report records the reproductive number (Rt) - Effective reproductive number (Rt) that concerns domestic broadcasts only.

Specifically, for the period 10 to 16 November the number of reproduction according to the four calculation methods is as follows:

Method A: Rt 10 - 16 Nov: 0,94 (0,86 - 1,01)

Method B: Rt 5 - 11 Nov: 0,77

Method C: R (t) (last days): 1,2 (90% confidence interval for the last day 0,85 -1,8)

Method D: R (t) 10 - 16 Nov: 0,92 (0,87 - 0,98)

Method D (domestic broadcasts): Rt 10 - 16 Nov .: 0,89 (0,83 - 0,94)

In conclusion, the transmissibility index ranges from 0,77 to 1,2.

Also, the national report records the forecasts of the cases for the next days.

As you will see in the table, the maximum numbers exceed 250 cases, while the minimums are between 50 and 100 cases.

Source: Sigmalive

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