Turkish voters are going to the polls once again in a short time and are called to choose not only the future of Turkey but also the surrounding areas.
The exiled Turkish journalist Abdullah Bozkurt (former director of the newspaper ZAMAN) and the journalist Noah Ringler conveyed to Alphanews.live their views on the current situation in Turkey and the aftermath of the elections, but also on the Cyprus issue.
Abdullah Bozkurt:
"OR nationalist euphoria and religious zeal seems to be spoon-feeding Turkish voters with the help of the media, which is almost entirely under Erdogan's domination and control. Citizens are told that they are surrounded by enemies on all fronts and that major powers (mainly the US and the EU) want to divide Turkey. In other words, Erdogan focused his campaign on an egocentric second liberation war and manipulated domestic issues for internal consumption.
The financial difficulties, which are getting harder day by day, seem to have affected the voters' self-confidence, although Erdogan masterfully uses external scapegoats. In the absence of criticism and independent media, there is very little room to provoke his narrative and focus on governance and accountability.
Η Terrorism is another piece of paper Erdogan uses in his campaign to intimidate voters. His government is secretly linked to jihadist organizations, something he is well known for having carried out some terror scenarios in order to intimidate voters. "While Erdogan is playing underground with real terrorism with these organizations, including Daes, he targets his opponents with abusive anti-terrorism laws and puts his legal followers to launch lawsuits against opponents, dissidents and critics."
Noah Ringler:
"Voters in previous elections have identified terrorism and security issues as their main concerns. According to polls in recent months, they are now worried about the economy. As Erdogan came to power with the financial crisis of 2002, the ruling party was worried that the monetary crisis and external debt instability would lead to a wider economic crisis. These factors, as well as a united opposition, have resulted in a tougher Erdogan since his election as prime minister. Key votes, however, will be from the Kurdish opposition and the left-wing People's Party (HDP). If the HDP does not secure the 10% needed to enter parliament, its seats will be given to the second party, most likely the AKP. But if he enters Parliament then the opposition will most likely secure a majority.
The presidential race is less certain, with concerns about state law, democracy, and the economy, voters are encouraged to support Muharrem Ince instead of Erdogan, who has an advantage in financial resources and control over the media. Erdogan still controls the game, the election commission and the security of the voters. The next round between Erdogan and Ince is likely on July 8. The conditions on June 24 will determine the next matches. "If there is violence, fraud or last-minute court rulings, all of this will play a role and could encourage opposition voters to vote and push for a run-off while the rest of the electorate stays home."
Abdullah Bozkurt:
"If Erdogan stays in power, which is most likely, relations with the EU and neighboring countries will suffer terribly. Initially, his government was not interested in adapting Turkey to the political criteria of European members, which focused on fundamental rights, laws and democratic values. It wants economic benefits from the EU in the form of trade, business, investment, tourism without reducing its values. Erdogan has changed the way he sees the EU in a hostile bloc he describes as a 'Christian club'.
To survive his imperial regime, Erdogan needs foreign enemies. This also helps to detune Turkish citizens from internal problems, especially financial ones. Therefore, we are more likely to see an increase in tensions between Greece and the Greek Cypriots in the post-election period. "The scenarios of respect for Greece are a smokescreen and are indicative of the nature of his government and how far he intends to go to secure his position and his interests."
Noah Ringler:
"The Turkish President the most likely to seek a review with its allies in the EU immediately after the election. Following the constitutional changes in April 2017, Erdogan softened his rhetoric and sent his ministers to Germany and the Netherlands. In the medium term, Turkey still has conflicting interests with the EU, and a fraudulent election or increase in authoritarianism is likely to pull the strings in EU relations. Erdogan will be no less aggressive on the Mediterranean islands claimed by Greece and Turkey. , as it needs the support of the nationalist MHP voters, with whom there are convergences. Erdogan will lead foreign policy even if it loses control of parliament and will continue to be a pragmatist with its agreements with foreign allies - while at the same time trying to deport and imprison Gulenists and opposition figures. If the opposition wins the presidency, Turkey is likely to seek a broad reorganization of the agenda and launch diplomatic procedures to establish new relations with the Eurozone, including Greece. The new government will return some of the powers in Parliament, part of which has to do with Greece.
Abdullah Bozkurt:
"I believe that there has been a significant damage to the voters' perception of Turkey's foreign policy. Even if Erdogan loses the election, the poisoned narrative of his rule has fallen to rival parties. Some have already been chosen by Erdogan as allies of nationalist and religious parties. Others have chosen to emulate similar if not the same foreign policy rhetoric. It will take enough time and energy for Turkish foreign policy to return to its traditional parameters in a 'post-Erdogan' era. "Cyprus will appear often whenever Erdogan or his opponents feel that this way they will strike the other side."
Noah Ringler:
"Erdogan has relations with the MHP, which sees Cyprus as Turkish. This stance does not help to start negotiations with the United Nations and ties the hands of Erdogan, whose party previously supported the negotiations. The Turkish opposition is unlikely to seek negotiations and will move more into reshaping the internal agenda. Whatever the outcome, it will be in the interest of the status quo in Cyprus in the near future.
Abdullah Bozkurt:
"If Hernogan wins, his de facto imperial regime will be formally crowned dictatorial with changes that will strengthen his government. It will continue to cause problems for its allies, allies and neighbors. Its status will be clear and a danger to all of Europe and others. Not only the Turkish Diaspora but also non-Turkish Muslim communities have been approached by the government offering them financial, political, diplomatic and other assistance. His appeal to Muslims undermines European governments from within and shows that he wants to promote a political Islam abroad. "Erdogan aspires to become the leader of a caliphate and to subjugate all the Muslims of the world."