Of Melik Kaylan
Turkey is in the vortex of a political drama, which "devours" the country and its leadership. A leading figure in the Turkish underworld, Sedat Peker, has severed ties with Recep Tayyip Erdogan's ruling party and posted a lengthy YouTube video accusing the Turkish government and its allies of crimes.
Crimes ranging from bribery and murder, rape and drug trafficking, to launching threats against media outlets close to the opposition, controlling major national banks and corrupting justice to such an extent that it is non-existent. The "recruitment" of the mafia to do the dirty work - which the Turks call the "deep state" (after all, they coined the term) - was a phenomenon that flourished during the 1990s and before, and which Erdogan, when he first came to power, he promised to uproot.
For several years it seemed that he had succeeded. This, however, seems to have allowed a new "deep state" to emerge around it, which serves the elite of their party and its elite. The videos released by Packer, which have already been seen by more than 50 million people, have paralyzed the country's government and undermined the legitimacy of the Erdogan regime.
This is because, so far, a worryingly large amount of information-accusations that the chief mobster has uttered seem, at first sight, credible. Some of the recent revelations correspond to real event, dates, travel tickets, famous meetings and the like. Articles have been written detailing many of these categories and outlining the Turkish state's long history of co-operation with "outlawed forces".
I do not intend, in this column, to list the categories, nor to analyze their authenticity. Peker claims more videos are imminent. The process is evolving. But no one has so far dealt with the geostrategic aspects of the issue. That is my goal.
Why should this issue concern us? Sadet Packer's videos come to light at a time when the Erdogan regime has almost completely lost popular support, even from members of its conservative base, and that is why the accusations are circulating so strongly. Erdogan's recent populist maneuvers do not work: such as his "contribution" with Turkish drones to Azerbaijan's victory over Armenia in the recent Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, the inauguration of the imposing mosque in the square other similar movements
Under normal circumstances, it would be especially popular with Turks and Islamists everywhere. But the collapsing Turkish pound, the country's shaky economy, the corruption of the oligarchic regime, and Peker's videos exposing a dark and terrifying kleptocracy have probably hit Erdogan hard, as many scholars point out.
Possibly resort to the solution of establishing an authoritarian regime, as in Belarus. But if it does, the West will find it very difficult to work with it politically. Whether it leaves or stays, instability threatens the country; and its eventual collapse, due to its geostrategic position, will affect the EU, the Balkans, NATO, the Russian sphere of influence, the Middle East and Central Asia. If in doubt, simply assume that Erdogan has intervened in all of the above areas as if they were Turkish territory. And if you think this is just a domestic, temporary storm, you may need to reconsider.
Peker has so far avoided attacking Erdogan directly. He had promised to do so in the video released last Sunday, but did not do so, he claimed, in order not to weaken Erdogan in view of his meeting with US President Joe Biden on June 14.
Some, however, speculate that Packer is actually working with the United States. In this scenario, Biden will tell the Turkish president what else Pecker is going to reveal and what the US is asking for in order to keep his mouth shut. For example, "it's time to dump her and move on." Or simply, "get rid of the Russian missiles you bought, leave Syria and Libya," etc.
In this case, it is likely that Erdogan will "counterattack" by saying inside his audience that Pecker and Biden are conspiring against the country and that all Turkish patriots must unite. After all, a similar trick has worked in the past and it worked - in 2014, when recorded conversations were revealed where Erdogan ordered his son to hide millions of dollars from illegal transactions in case of a police raid. At the time, he claimed that the recorded conversations were fake, that his popularity had grown, and that he had gained more power. The conservative base of his party chose not to pay attention. It could happen again.
Could. But its "immunity" can not last long, as the collapsing economy and other troubles continue to plague the people, secular and religious. The Sea of Marmara in Istanbul is dying and threatening to unleash infectious diseases. Erdogan has exhausted his war rhetoric that incorporates all anti-democratic, anti-Islamist forces, such as terrorists, Gulenists, coup plotters, and even foreign powers.
The country is terrified and angry, overwhelmed by heroic sacrifices and patriotic arrogance, while Erdogan's elites "enrich" their fortunes.
After all, Sedat Packer has already been accused of conspiracy with foreign powers by the heavily manipulated media, which claim that he publishes the videos in consultation with the CIA, Mossad and others, but this did not hurt his credibility. Ultimately, his patriotic credentials can hardly be questioned as he is widely known to have been the leader of the supranationalist mafia.
The international implications
But let us return to the international implications of the issue. Peker claims to have escaped to Dubai or somewhere in the Persian Gulf. Wherever he hides, his life is definitely in danger. Therefore, a country should grant him immunity. There is a sense that he could be sheltered by the Saudis - in retaliation for Erdogan's role in uncovering the murder of Saudi journalist Kasogi inside the Saudi consulate in Turkey.
However, the Turkish media has largely avoided reporting on Saudi Arabia, possibly due to the high-level meetings to improve relations between the two countries, which preceded the Becker revelations.
Erdogan could indeed seek economic "injections" from Saudi Arabia into the Turkish economy, but only through his own "channels." As I have pointed out in the past, to a certain extent difficult times are in his best interest, as long as his elites and oligarchs have enough liquidity to buy the "faith" of much of society.
In other words, a diverse economy poses another threat to the Erdogan regime. Therefore, a controlled economy with an enlarged informal economy sector has its advantages. In this context, the oil agreements with the Persian Gulf provide the possibility of trading in an independent commodity that also functions as a currency, such as gold or bitcoin. This is something that the Turkish elite is well aware of.
Readers will surely remember that the US has sued a Turkish state-owned bank for money laundering in Iran.
Which brings us to the issue of Ankara's relations with Venezuela, a distant and rather "difficult" way of handling the country, in relation to the way Turkey usually acts. As I have explained in the past, the attractiveness of Venezuela under the Maduro government to controversial state actors lies in its role as a pillar of the global black economy. Erdogan himself went to the country to sign a bilateral gold agreement. Venezuela has a number of commodities that act as money substitutes - oil, gold, uranium and. Drugs.
Let's not forget the 2017 reports that said that "the US blacklisted the vice president of Venezuela as a drug dealer". Now Sedan Packer is claiming that the son of a former Turkish prime minister went to Venezuela to "build" a new "cocaine route" to Turkey - the previous route through Colombia had been revealed. There are articles that describe the subject in detail. The former prime minister categorically denied the allegations, saying his son had gone to the country to deliver humanitarian aid to deal with the pandemic.
I have also pointed out in the past that the Ankara regime is making great efforts to compensate for possible US sanctions. Do not forget that US President Trump has imposed sanctions on Turkey twice, one for the purchase of Russian S-400 missiles and one for the imprisonment of an American evangelical pastor.
We have also noted in previous columns that the Ankara regime has made great efforts to compensate for possible US sanctions. Remember that President Trump has imposed sanctions on Turkey twice, for the purchase of Russian S-400 missiles and for the imprisonment of an American evangelist. Both cases shocked the country's economy.
With the risk of more targeted sanctions against Turkish oligarchs, it will come as no surprise if it is revealed that individual members of the elite are looking for ways to offset the sanctions. After all, regardless of the allegations of Sedat Peker, Turkey has the reputation of a drug hub.
The recent crackdown on a global drug network stretching from Australia to the United States is linked to Sydney-born Turkish drug lord Hakan Agik, who fled to Turkey, where he lived undisturbed and even uploaded photos to Facebook showing off his wealth.
This is the man who inadvertently distributed the "trapped" phones that allowed the law enforcement authorities to arrest hundreds of perpetrators around the world. It is therefore not unreasonable that the leaders of the Turkish opposition and the media now characterize Turkey as a drug state. As in trade in general, the country is in a strategic position to be a hub between continents.
With Capital.gr