Recently, the economy from the "strong paper" of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is increasingly evolving into its great political precariousness.
His unorthodox policy of low interest rates has so far failed to reverse the collapse of the pound, nor has it prevented the spike in inflation that is currently constantly worsening the economic situation of households.
This also explains why it is a top priority for the Turkish government to find ways to support the economy, starting with the search for foreign investment.
The rapprochement effort with the United Arab Emirates and Saudi ArabiaIn this context, it is particularly important that Turkey seeks to improve its relations with the Gulf states.
This rapprochement is obviously of geopolitical interest as well, as Turkey has come into conflict with Saudi Arabia and the United States because of its support for the Muslim Brotherhood and the Morsi government in Egypt and for its involvement in Syria and Libya. .
This was evident in the fact that they supported rival wings in the civil war in Libya, while especially in the relations between Turkey and Saudi Arabia, the case of the assassination of the Saudi journalist Jamal Kasogi in Istanbul by Saudi security officials played a role. even more difficult.
For this reason and for a significant period of time, Turkey had upgraded relations only with Qatar, the only Gulf country that also maintained relations with the Muslim Brotherhood and the country that made significant investments in Turkey, while also serving the Turkish central bank in Critical moments with currency swap.
But in the new landscape that began to emerge after Biden's election, Turkey has launched an effort to re-establish ties with the Gulf states. This also had to do with a more comprehensive rapprochement with the West and countries that are part of key Western alliances.
Only in the case of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates is the interest economic.
The agreement with the AQD fund of Abu DhabiAgainst this background, the deal with the Abu Dhabi investment vehicle, ADQ, a holding company that is a strategic partner of the Abu Dhabi government and aims to transform the emirate into a competitive pole with an emphasis on the knowledge economy, is particularly significant. .
The deal was discussed in November during a visit to Turkey by the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (whom the Turkish government had previously accused of funding the failed 2016 coup). The MBZ meeting, often referred to as the strongman of the United Arab Emirates, with Erdogan was an important development and had a financial content.
That was when there was a commitment that ADQ would invest $ 10 billion in Turkey, which was a very important commitment for the Turkish economy, given the overall pressure it is under.
ADQ representatives say Turkey is now an attractive investment destination for them. For the representatives of the emirate fund, who during their visit in November signed a memorandum of understanding with the Turkish Wealth Fund, which has holdings in 28 companies, in sectors such as state-owned banks, mining, transport and energy, the Turkey has several advantages. It is a large country with 84 million inhabitants, facilitates business, has significant logistics capabilities, large food companies and is very well connected to markets such as Germany.
The emirate's wealth fund (which is not the only one), which in recent years has invested $ 16 billion and manages $ 110-120 billion in assets, including Etihad Airlines, is particularly interested in investing in regional champions ”and focuses on investing in the Middle East, Europe and Africa.
The significance of Erdogan's upcoming visit to Saudi Arabia"He is waiting for me in February," was Erdogan's response on January 3 when asked by a businessman if he would resolve trade issues with Saudi Arabia, leaving it unclear whether the one waiting for him was King Salman or the prince. successor Mohammed bin Salman.
Officially, the king remains the Turkish government's official interlocutor - Erdogan is still in contact with him to wish him well on the big holidays, as the prince - and de facto leader - has been targeted by Turkey over Kasoggi's promise. In fact, it is estimated that the Turkish side targeted Mohammed bin Salman in an attempt to stop his path to the throne through international outcry.
After all, Turkish-Saudi relations have not been at their best in recent years, especially since Ankara has insisted on good relations with Doha, despite the rift between Qatar and the other Gulf monarchies. Of course, there is now a rapprochement between Qatar and the other Gulf states, which also affects Turkey's stance.
Now, however, there seems to be a dynamic of reconciliation throughout the region, sometimes in "zigzag ways". The rapprochement between the UAE and Turkey probably gave a boost to Riyadh to seek a channel of communication with Ankara so as not to be left out of the wider settlement, in line with the way Saudi Arabia's direct communication with Iran pushed and the UAE in rapprochement with Iran. In addition, the fact that Turkey has shown a willingness to engage in open conflict (as evidenced by its involvement in Libya) but also the fact that it offers drones that have been tested relatively successfully in real conflict, increases the interest in negotiating with it.
Of course, on the horizon of this agreement is the attempt of Turkey to acquire a less "interventionist" policy in open crises and fronts, to jointly avoid situations like Libya (where Turkey supported with equipment and mercenaries on one side and the UAE and Saudi Arabia supported the other).
The exchange is greater economic co-operation at a time when the economy is in danger of becoming Erdogan's "Achilles' heel". The informal boycott of the Saudis on Turkish products meant that Turkish exports in the first eleven months of 2021 fell to $ 189 million, while in 2020 it was 2,5 billion and in 2019 it was 3,2 billion. This means that a warming of economic relations would be a major economic boost for Turkey.
The difficult political negotiationDespite the apparent dynamics of rapprochement with both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, negotiation will not be easy. Both countries will want to see a curb on the expansion of Turkish influence in the region.
Movements such as Turkey's attempt to acquire a military base in Libya, expand its influence in the Horn of Africa and strengthen its presence in the Red Sea are still being viewed with caution.
Nor is it a given that Turkey will find support in relation to its claims in the Southeastern Mediterranean.
However, with the pressure from the economy high and Erdogan wanting to be part of a wider settlement in the region, it is clear that Turkey has no choice but to continue in this direction.
Source: in.gr