The May elections are being held in a really strange general environment and the participation of the citizens is faced with a significant inhibiting factor, the insecurity from exposure to a possible health risk due to COVID, the political analyst Christoforos Christoforou states in KYPE. He also noted the widespread use of social media and the internet to conduct the election campaign, but stressed that this was not a weapon in itself and that the content and quality of communication was more important.
Through the interview in KYPE we tried with Mr. Christoforou to detect the different environment of the elections, the behavior of the people given the uncertainty, the prolonged measures and the great fatigue but also the approach of the voters by the parties through not so traditional methods and issues around which this election campaign revolves.
Mr. Christoforou notes that the general environment of the elections is really strange and a natural consequence of this situation is to expect that it will affect some aspects of the results, ie the participation, the groups that will intend to participate in the election, to go to the polls or to abstain.
"It is rather difficult to predict exactly what kind of impact we will have, but some assumptions can be made. Human behavior is somewhat predictable, but because it depends on more than one parameter, we can look at it based on possible scenarios. For example, fatigue from prolonged tension and anxiety to some degree, may have a kind of "surrender" of the voter to forces with which he feels safe, calm. For others, however, it may be a reason for reaction, which will push him to non-conventional choices ", he explains to KYPE.
The question, he says, with these assumptions is how many choose to follow the first direction and how many the second and the sum indicates the degree of change in the correlation of forces that we may have the day after the elections.
Mr. Christoforou states that apart from the citizen-voter, the differentiation concerns almost all aspects of the electoral process and drastically influences the program, the conduct and the content of the election campaign. The agenda, he adds, changes, both in terms of the range and extent of the issues raised, as well as the priorities and gravity.
"In its most extreme form, the coronavirus crisis is likely to threaten even the conduct of the match itself. "We saw it in other countries, with the most characteristic, in my opinion, the case of France, in March 2020", he states.
In France, he continues, despite the dangers of spreading the public, the authorities decided to hold the local elections, which are held in two rounds, and the multiplication of cases and the problems it created forced the government to suspend three months to vote in the second round. Logically, he explains, a similar process affects the result, altering what was expected to happen if the two rounds of elections took place within 15 days.
"Yes, it is certain that the whole scene, beyond the emotions, and not just any fatigue or frustration, affect the way people behave. In the first place, the biggest question is whether the situation will have been "normalized" to some extent so that the citizen who wishes to go to the polls can do so without hesitation, without feeling that he is exposing himself to dangers. Given the data we have today, it seems extremely difficult for me to be at this level on May 30th. "Therefore, participation is faced with an important inhibitory factor, insecurity from exposure to potential health hazards," he said.
According to Mr. Christoforou, the citizens who will go to the polls will vote based on various factors, among which is the emotional state due to the prolonged restriction and deprivation of basic rights.
"Some will be happy because they think the restrictions were necessary and enabled them to stay safe. "Others will have different approaches, from condescension, 'yes, I did not like what happened, but what to do' to indignation 'about what we had to suffer,'" he says.
As Mr. Christoforou explains to KYPE, the above, the emotional side, of course affects the will and the vote and we can assume that the negative attitude, the reaction to the political forces that are considered to be responsible for the restrictions, rather outweighs the positive in numbers.
"Let us not get carried away, though. Many other factors influence the vote. They are the ideologies that still apply to the core party nuclei, the tradition of joining a party, the desire to vote for an acquaintance, relative or friend, the thematic vote, ie voting based on the position of a candidate on an issue that interests us "Although it will be difficult to discern exactly what factors prevailed in the voting choices, the exit polls (if any) may offer some analysis," he said.
Mr. Christoforou notes that without a doubt the first issue, which, naturally, rather, concerns the electorate, everyone, is the issue of corruption. Although the issue of corruption has occupied the public sphere for years, it was overshadowed by political discourse and a disposition to `defend against external intrigue`.
In his view, the "need to defend Cyprus" was projected, ignoring that the most effective shield for the country was and will always be the adherence to the law, to the laws.
Even today, we deny its magnitude, even the existence of corruption, or even its approach as something commonplace, "found in all countries." For many years, 90% believed that there was widespread corruption. "With the revelations of the last two or three years, her presence in the place became tangible and documented", he states.
The second finding, according to Mr. Christoforou, is the inability of the main political forces to produce content.
"They remain in stereotypical slogans or in paradoxes, due to their inherent weaknesses but also because they lack basic support. "How can they justify positions on one issue or another, when there is evidence of timeless corruption or when their policies have either given birth to corruption or failed?" he wonders.
Mr. Christoforou personally considers the case of the Democratic Alarm an interesting phenomenon, which, in his view, "while ruling, opposes the opposition." "Opposition parties point the finger at what has not been done, at the failures, at the corruption," he said, noting the party's stance, he says, on the issue of immigration security.
As far as AKEL is concerned, it notes a multitude of messages, beyond what is expected for corruption. "They stand out a lot with economic and social aspects. The return as an almost unique color of red makes an impression. Apparently, they believe that the main problem is the return of their former left-wing voters. In the past, the party made openings using colors that referred to DIKO, EDEK, and even DISY. DIKO, last year made its banner the fight against corruption, as if it is foreign to similar tactics. Once again, he also criticizes the government for policies, some of which the party contributed to with its vote, or which at the time it had not challenged. "EDEK presents a wide range of messages, without showing a basic axis", he states.
We also asked Mr. Christoforou about the Geneva conference and whether its outcome will play a role in the citizens 'vote or in the parties' messages to the voters.
"If we accept that all parties, but also the citizens, have a low level of expectations from the Geneva meeting, the essential role of the result in the election campaign is not expected. The most optimistic scenario is for this meeting to be the starting point for a new round of contacts, the opening of perspective without its predictable development. In such a case, we will have two lines, those who will maintain a positive waiting attitude, and the group of those who will continue to ring the alarm bell, to warn of traps, without of course having a proposal ", he states.
Mr. Christoforou considers that if the meeting leads to a new impasse, or rather to a continuation of the impasse, there will be criticism, mainly from AKEL, "but with little or no opposition to the vote."
The young candidates have a lead due to the extensive use of the internet since the campaign is now conducted with restrictions, we asked Mr. Christoforou who considers that the use of social media and the possibilities of the internet are not weapons in themselves and that every media has its particular advantages and possibilities and it is necessary to use everything in order to be effective.
"Young people may have possibilities that those who do not know how to use the internet do not have, but this cannot be overestimated. In all, the most important thing is the content and the quality of the communication. In general, with the use of electronic media some political forces can overcome limitations that they face because they do not have large resources and multi-faceted staffs for personal communication and contact. "It will depend on how the means are used," he said.
Mr. Christoforou adds that every election and campaign he attended all these years in Cyprus always had their peculiarities.
"For the first time, however, a factor is intervening that affects the whole spectrum, all the aspects that concern the electoral process, that of the pandemic. For the first time, it even threatens the very conduct of the vote. "This in itself creates uncertainty about the result, despite the fact that we have some indications from polls."