For the past few days, the episodes of a drama with many protagonists have been unfolding on the borders of Greece, which has increased the tension between our country and Turkey and has brought back to the forefront the immigrant-refugee as a catalyst for developments.
The escalation on the part of Ankara with the promotion to Evros but also the Aegean islands of people who until recently were hosted in the Turkish hinterland and are now trying to enter Greek territory, has caused the accumulation of security forces and the strict closure of the border.
Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis has sent strong messages to Ankara, with the Turkish government responding with challenges even to the publication in the media of its neighbor of controlled accuracy, which blames Greece for violence against refugees and refugees.
To all this is added the meeting of European officials last Tuesday with Kyriakos Mitsotakis in Evros, who, among other things, made an on-site overview of what is happening on the Greek-Turkish water border.
But how can we assess the deteriorating situation that is evolving into another diplomatic thriller and a challenge for Greek foreign policy? We asked the answers to the question to be given by the Associate Professor of International Relations in the Middle East and the Mediterranean of the University of Peloponnese Sotiris Roussos.
Erdogan's opportunity
We asked Mr. Roussos if what is happening at the border is a trap set by Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Greece.
"No, I would not call it a trap," he told us. "THE Erdogan it works like this: it has a huge number of refugees in its country, it has 3.500.000 people, maybe more. This puts a lot of weight on him, as he would in any country. This burden is trying to take advantage of it and turn it into an opportunity, if we used a financial term. And how will he do that? Essentially aligning European and Western powers in general with its plan to relocate large numbers of Sunni Muslims who are pro-Turkish and hostile to Assad to the northern or occupied areas of Syria. "Like Idlib and Rojava."
The professor unfolds his plan Turk Chairman:
"It simply came to our notice then. One is financial support, which he seeks. He says "you did not give me the money you owed me", and this is largely true. That is, they have not given him the 6 billion that they had said they would give him from 2016. And the second is at the political and military level, to help him make these relocations. Essentially to create a Turkish protectorate in the region. This is his basic strategy. And for this he uses various means of pressure.
A means of pressure is not a trap, it does not trap anyone. He just thinks that there is a means of pressure that he can use, an opportunity, for which no one can tell him that he is doing something illegal or against the rules, because he tells you “I have 3.500.000 refugees, and let 10 "15 thousand, which is not even 1% of this population, is not so terrible". Erdogan has a weight in his hands which he is trying to turn into a tool. Let us not forget this, because usually in Greece we overlook this. It has a very large weight which is the 3.500.000 refugees. And he tries to turn that into an opportunity.
With few forces, with relatively few refugees in relation to the volume of refugees in Turkey, it creates a lot of pressure. It's not an asymmetric threat, it is an asymmetric pressure. "
Is Erdogan losing in Syria?
Mr. Roussos also answered whether Turkey's moves are a distraction in the development of the conflict in Συρία.
"Erdogan is not losing at the moment, but things are not going as he would like. What would he like? He would like to dominate Idlib, to build houses in Idlib with European money, in order to transport refugees friendly to Turkey. Do the same in Kurdish Rojava. In fact, if it could unify all three regions, it would complete a Turkish protectorate within the territory of Syria. This is due to the attack of his troops Assad and the support they have from the Russians does not thrive at least in Idlib, and that is what causes him trouble. And he reacts to that.
- Do these moves also stem from the internal opposition to Erdogan?
"I have said it before, I will tell it to you too. Erdogan has no internal opposition, no political opposition. He has social opposition. In other words, it has social strata which are not doing well financially, due to the economic downturn and on the other hand it has areas that have been greatly burdened by the arrival of refugees and they also react to Turkish policy. So he has to do something.
For the refugees, he believes that the right policy would be to move them as they do today to the areas of northern Syria that he controls.
"It goes without saying that a country should guard its borders"
- Greece currently has closed borders. Is it an effective treatment?
"First of all, I will not use the terms invasion and asymmetric threat. We have a large number refugees at our border, who desires and tries to enter. Obviously, it is not allowed to enter the borders of a country that is not an official entry point. A country cannot accept anyone crossing the border wherever they want, crossing them and not entering through official entrances. From the Gardens, the Chestnuts, etc. So it goes without saying that a country guards its borders and those who want to enter can only enter through the official and recognized gates.
Beyond that, Greece must allow a number that can be handled by the services of the official channels for asylum applications. That is, out of 10.000, how many can withstand the Chestnuts and Gardens? 50 a day, 40 a day? To come and apply for asylum.
Even the ruling of the Court of Human Rights, which is invoked by many, says that you are not allowed to cross the border on informal roads, on informal gates. That is, you can not do - to put it very simply and popularly "mouths". But what he says is that one can apply as a refugee at the official entrances. "No one can forbid that."
The dangers for Greece from the "hysteria" and the messages to Erdogan
"It simply came to our notice then. We need to clarify something in our minds, because I hear it from many angles. Greece is a country that invokes international law and international rules. So we now say that we have a special security situation "explains Mr. Roussos, who then points out the dangers of such a strategy:
"Turkey towards us is the 'specialist' in special situations. That is, everything describes it as a special situation and in this way transcends international law. He says that the Aegean is a special situation, so we can not use the law of the sea. Syria is a special situation, so we cannot accept international law on borders and inviolability.
We must therefore be careful because we will not be able to use the help of international law in international fora and we will have accepted the special status regime that is butter in Turkish bread. So pay attention to this because it is not so good strategically ".
- But is the response from the Greek side effective?
"In the short term, in the next 10 to 15 days, we can have results. That is, not to enter from the 10.000 but only a few from Evros and the islands. But beware: what is happening today has short legs. And let me tell you why: we do not take escalation into account. That is, if Erdogan thinks he should step up and urge 150.000 πρόσφυγες to come to the border, 15 times more than we have today and we have suffered hysteria, what will happen?
So this closure of borders in the short term is ok in terms of efficiency. But this can not be the means by which we will deal with the situation.
And a second element: we must be careful how the other person reads us. That is, if Erdogan sees a Greece that with 10.000 gets hit and comes out with a proclamation that we have war, asymmetric threats, etc., then he thinks that if with 10.000 I had this result, with 150.000 what result will I have? They will collapse completely. In other words, the message we are giving is also wrong ".
"Europe to make a hot spot in Turkey"
The solution to the problem is not in Greek territory, according to the professor:
"Greece is wrong to go to the European Union and say: 'Give me a franc to close holes or strengthen the equipment or send me two people to help, to turn their backs and two helicopters to help at the border.' This is not a European answer. These answers are half measures and put us in a difficult position all the time.
One European answer is clear and it is one: European hot spots within Turkey, which will take over the reception and processing of asylum applications and those entitled to asylum to be distributed in European countries. If this is not done, Erdogan will have a pool of threats, which will grow and shrink as they try.
Greece must put this in every way and try to connect it with other European issues. What to talk about budget when one or two countries are constantly under threat of such events ?.
The Turkey-The European Union on this issue it obviously does not work. This is a new deal that needs to be done. In any case, the EU is currently in negotiations with Erdogan. As a matter of fact. What did European officials do in Ankara? Drink tea? Or in Istanbul? "They went to negotiate again."
- But how much will this solution change the existing status?
Refugees should not arrive in Greece or Bulgaria to seek asylum and be deported to northern and western countries, because that is their final plan. There is a small majority of people who come to stay in Greece. 90% are people who want to go further. And further I mean not to go to Serbia, but to go to Germany, Denmark, Sweden, Belgium, the Netherlands. This will change the whole logic of the reception of refugees and will lift a huge burden on us.
There are two issues to know: that Germany will not enter this process, not because it has a problem. Because you know something, Germany has a lot of refugees and can say that "I keep my share". The problem is that Germany does not want to clash with the countries of Eastern Europe, which it considers its customers. Political and economic ".
"We need a calmer perception"
Mr. Roussos recommends a more calm approach to the issue:
"We need a calmer perception, a logic that there are no sealed borders, that we should kill and sink and drown at our sea borders, these people because they have seen drownings and killings in their country, much more than there is at our borders, they will not hesitate to take the risk. This case will not end like this.
"We must be calm, not deviate from international law and, above all, raise the issues strategically in Europe and not cyclically and if you want economically."