The New York Times is trying to answer the chronological pattern of the pandemic waves - Scientists say that, except for the unexpected, no wave will be as large and damaging as the one triggered by the Delta mutation.
Epidemiological indicators appear to be declining in the US and around the world, which means that the coronavirus pandemic remains, but is declining. However, the reasons for the decline are unclear and there are no guarantees that the reduction of the epidemiological burden will continue.
According to the New York Times, in the US, the number of daily cases has decreased by 35% since September 1, with cases worldwide declining by 30% since the end of August. Dr. Eric Topol of Schripps Research wrote that "we are at the best place we have been for months".
It is particularly encouraging that severe cases of the disease are also in remission. Complicated Americans have seen a 25 percent drop in deaths since Sept. 1 and 10 percent of deaths since Sept. 20, the first major drop in deaths since early summer.
The mysterious two-month cycle
The recession points to a pattern that many now recognize: the mysterious two-month cycle of pandemic waves. From the end of 2019, when the pandemic began to spread, the cases increase for two months, sometimes due to a new mutation, such as Delta, and then subside for another two months.
Epidemiologists have not yet determined why. Many popular explanations, such as seasonality or fluctuations in mask use and distance keeping, are obviously inadequate, if not incorrect. The two-month cycle is observed during different eras and continued even when human behavior did not change in obvious ways.
The most logical explanations include a combination of virology and social networks. One variant is more likely to infect some people but not all, and when many of the most vulnerable are exposed to the virus, its spread is temporarily limited. A mutation may take about two months to circulate in a medium-sized community.
Human behavior also plays a distinct role. People tend to be more careful when there is an outbreak of cases. Often, though, keeping your distance is not as important as the public debate about coronavirus tends to show. "We have attached too much importance to the human impact on the spread of the virus," said Michael Osterholm, an infectious disease specialist at the University of Minnesota. The recent reductions, for example, coincided with the return of millions of American students to school.
Whatever the reasons, the two-month cycle continues to happen, something that can be seen from all indicators and in many countries. For example, in countries such as India, Indonesia, Thailand, Britain, France and Spain, the Delta mutation led to an increase in cases over the period 1,5-2,5 months. However, the two-month cycle is not an inviolable rule, as exceptions have been identified in many cases. In Britain, for example, case numbers have fluctuated over the past two months, instead of falling steadily.
Did the Delta mutation lead to the last big wave?
At the same time, scientists and experts are wondering if the Delta mutation is the last major wave of the pandemic.
In the US, with the onset of low temperatures and increased domestic activity, there could be a new rise in cases. The course of the pandemic remains uncertain. However uncertainty for some means that the near future could prove to be more encouraging.
In the US, the percentage of people over the age of 12 with at least one vaccine dose has reached 76%, while the number will increase after the approval of vaccines for children aged 5-11. Also, about 50% of Americans are infected with the coronavirus, having a partial natural immunity.
In the end, the immunity will become so extensive that a new wave as large and deadly as the one caused by the Delta is not considered possible. Scott Gottlieb, a former Food and Drug Administration commissioner, says that unexpectedly, this was the last major wave of the pandemic.
The coronavirus was not only one of the worst pandemics of modern times. It was an unnecessary, terrible pandemic. Of the more than 700.000 Americans who died from the complications of the disease, about 200.000 would have been saved if they had received the vaccine.
Η Covid-19 it will not disappear soon. It will continue to circle for years, according to scientists. However, vaccines can turn the coronavirus into a manageable condition, no different from the flu or the common cold.
"Whatever the fall brings, the worst of the pandemic is almost certainly behind us," concludes the New York Times editor.
Source: First Topic