The period that could be reduced has passed, scientists say
The coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, which causes the disease, will continue to circulate in humanity in the distant future. Covid-19, has been transmitted to more than 20 million people on Earth (diagnosed cases only), has already killed about 730.000 patients and unfortunately is raising its head again in many countries, including Greece. If there was a time when the virus could be curtailed, it is now gone, probably irreversibly. Whatever happens from now on, according to several scientists, one thing seems almost certain: The new virus will never go away.
It is so easily transmitted - mainly with the help of asymptomatic carriers - and has already spread so far across the globe, that the most likely scenario, experts say, according to the American magazine Atlantic, is that yes the pandemic will end at some point - because many people will be infected or vaccinated - but the coronavirus will not stop circulating among us at lower levels, often under epidemiological "radar".
Over time, the cases will go up and down like the tide, there will be epidemic outbreaks here and there, but even when there are vaccines, the virus will not be eradicated. After all, vaccines have been around for a long time for many viruses, but only the smallpox virus is thought to have disappeared from Earth. So, most likely, we will live with the new coronavirus for the rest of our lives, but it will not be as scary as it is now.
A few months ago, public health officials were even more optimistic about the disappearance of the new coronavirus, as was the case in 2004 with the related virus that caused SARS. However, this is now considered almost impossible, as the new virus spreads much more easily than the previous SARS-CoV coronavirus, especially since it is transmitted by people who do not suspect that they have it in their body.
"It is very unlikely that this time we will be able to declare victory over SARS," said Stephen Morse, an epidemiologist at Columbia University in New York.
What exactly happens will depend crucially on the strength and duration of immunity to the new virus, according to Harvard University infectious disease specialist Jonathan Grant. According to the model he has developed, if the immunity lasts a few months, the initial big pandemic will be followed by smaller waves each year. If the immunity lasts for almost two years, the disease Covid-19 will show exacerbations year after year. The shorter the immunity, the more difficult it will be to "uproot" the virus.
At present, it is unclear how long the immunity lasts, as the virus is young enough to draw safe conclusions. However, a future vaccine will probably need to be repeated periodically every year (like the flu) or every two years.
But even if the virus disappears from humans, it will continue to circulate in animals, from where it could well spread to humans again. Much more, according to University of North Carolina virologist Timothy Sian, that people with Covid-19 various animals appear to be stuck (from where the virus returns).
Based on the best case scenario, the existence of both vaccines and better drugs in the future will make Covid-19 a less dangerous disease and SARS-CoV-2 will become another seasonal respiratory virus, like the already four common coronaviruses (229E, OC43, NL63 and HKU1) that cause common colds. SRAS-CoV-2 may become the fifth virus of this much more "bad" group.
It is well known that viruses generally have a tug-of-war between transmissibility and lethality. The more deadly a virus is, the harder it is to spread. And the viruses -finally- "want" to spread, not to kill.
"If you look at the big picture, a dead host is not helping the virus," said Vinit Menaseri, a coronavirus specialist at the University of Texas. So, logically, the new virus will become less deadly over time, combined with immunity thanks to vaccines.
"I think the coronavirus will be with us in the future. But with us is the flu, without "rolling down" in our societies. "So we're going to make it with him," said Ruth Caron, a new vaccine researcher at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore.
Source: Offsite