The coronavirus pandemic in the UK will last until the spring of 2021 and could lead to the hospitalization of 7,9 million patients, according to a secret Public Health Service (PHE) document to senior NHS officials, such as directors of hospitals and clinics.
The document, leaked to the Guardian newspaper, also states that public health officials in the country are preparing to be infected with the virus in 80% of the population during this time.
According to the Guardian, the country's top medical official, Professor Chris Whitey, had stated that the spread of the coronavirus in 80% of the population is the pilot scenario and that the actual number of carriers will be much lower.
However, the leaked PHE document makes it clear that "up to 80% of the population is expected to be infected with Covid-19 in the next 12 months and up to 15% (7,9 million people) may require hospitalization ".
Commenting on the revelation, East Anglia University professor of medicine Paul Hunter told the Guardian that people would be worried, but agreed that an exacerbation time was "quite possible".
He estimated that the virus would subside in the summer, towards the end of June, but would reappear in November, as is the case with seasonal flu. "I think the virus will be present forever, but it will become less severe over time as immunity is built up," said Professor Hunter.
The document also estimates that 500.000 of the 5 million workers in "essential services and critical infrastructure" such as the NHS and social care will be absent from work at the same time due to a coronavirus infection at the height of the epidemic. which will last "for months".
At the same time, it is estimated that at least 10% of the population will have a cough during the peak months of the epidemic, which according to current data means seven days of isolation.
The document also states that health services cannot handle the large number of citizens with symptoms that need to be examined for coronavirus because the laboratories are "under significant pressure."
From now on, only very seriously ill patients who are already in the hospital and citizens living in nursing homes and prisons where a coronavirus case has been identified will be examined, according to the document.
The inability to perform a sufficient number of tests is so great that even NHS medical and nursing staff will not be considered, despite the high exposure to the virus and the risk of transmitting it to other patients.
The Guardian notes that if this grim prediction of a virus infection in 80% of the population is verified, then with a mortality rate of 1%, the country must prepare for 531.000 deaths.
According to official figures from the Ministry of Health on Sunday afternoon, there are 1.372 confirmed cases of coronavirus and 35 deaths in the United Kingdom.
Source: KYPE