Everything is judged by Israel's response, after Iran's strike last Saturday, the intensity and extent it will have, estimates the international expert Charalambos Chrysostomou, speaking to the Cyprus News Agency about the situation as it has developed in the Middle East and the effects in Cyprus .
As Mr. Chrysostomou reported to the Cyprus News Agency, after Iran's strike against Israel last Saturday, in response to Israel's strike on the Iranian Embassy in Damascus, "things are unfolding very dangerously in our region".
As he said, a response from the Israelis is expected after the War Council decided yesterday that it will not leave Iran's strike unanswered. "So an answer is expected from the Israelis," he noted.
The crucial thing is where Israel will strike in response and what intensity and extent this strike will have, he said. "This is important because depending on this blow, we may proceed to a deflation of the crisis or we will go to a worsening and further escalation of the crisis," he said.
Mr. Chrysostomou explained that there are two scenarios in this matter. "The first is that Israel chooses to strike not directly at Iran itself but at Iran's allies, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon or the Houthis in Yemen, and that the Iranians do not see this strike as a strike directly at Iran and not continue in a new stroke from their side".
If Israel chooses to strike Iran itself, he added, "then things become much more difficult and depending on the target of the strike we may go to a very dangerous escalation."
According to Mr. Chrysostomou, "the target may be some infrastructure of Iran's missile bases - which will be the least of the evils, but will certainly provoke a new response from Iran's side." Still, he continued, there has been talk by hardliners in Israel of the possibility of striking Iran's nuclear infrastructure itself, "which would mean a very dangerous flare-up in our region."
Asked how Cyprus is affected by this situation, Mr. Chrysostomou said that "any escalation of the situation, with strikes either in Lebanon or Syria or possibly a new ground operation in Rafah, will reflexively cause new refugee waves from the region us, either by Syrians in Lebanon or in Syria itself, or even if Lebanon and Hezbollah's bases are hit extensively." The worst possibility, he continued, is "in the event that the Rafah point breaks, there will be uncontrolled Palestinian refugee flows. Cyprus, as the closest region, will have to face a very difficult situation".
The second negative consequence for Cyprus, which is also a global consequence, he said, is that "unfortunately aggravation of the situation will mean an increase in the price of oil and natural gas worldwide, especially if sanctions are imposed on Iran or Iran closes the Straits of Hormuz through which almost a quarter of the world's shipping moves. So there will be consequent price increases not only in oil but also in all products."
A third effect for Cyprus, he said, is that already the British have used the Bases in an attempt to intercept Iran's missile strikes without even informing the Republic of Cyprus, "which the President has also admitted". "So in the event of the British forces from the Akrotiri Bases being withdrawn and involved in any hostilities, you realize that Cyprus now enters the frame of this entire confrontation. So, everything is judged by what Israel's strike will be, at what intensity and what extent it will be", he added.
Source: KYPE