In the last weeks of World War I, a German general sent a telegram to his Austrian allies summarizing the situation. It was, he wrote, "serious but not catastrophic." "Here, the situation is catastrophic but not serious," came the response. This is, of course, a compliment. However, as Ivan Krastev, a researcher at the Institute of Humanities in Vienna and an expert on international politics, points out in the New York Times, he captures in a nutshell the disagreement between the United States and Europe over the situation in Ukraine.
For the United States and Joe Biden, a Russian invasion of Ukraine is a "distinct possibility." For Europe, not so much. "The United States believes that Putin will go to war. "Europeans believe he is bluffing," said a German diplomat. After all, Krastev comments, a total war is as unthinkable for the Western European public as an alien invasion.
The many decades of peace in Western Europe, combined with the continent's deep dependence on Russian oil and gas, predispose officials to see Russian aggression as a ploy, a lever of pressure. This view, however, seems to be shared, after the initial alarm, and Kiev. Last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky described the situation as "dangerous but unclear."
In fact, Europeans and Ukrainians are skeptical of a large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, not because they see Vladimir Putin as more evil than their American counterparts, but simply because they see him as more malicious. The Kremlin's goal, in their eyes, is not war, but the destabilization of the West, through a hybrid strategy that includes a military presence at the border, instrumentalization of energy flows and cyber-attacks.
Because it is clear that Putin wants to end the post-Cold War class, he wants a new European security architecture, he wants the restoration of what he considers to be historic Russia. And a Russian invasion of Ukraine could, paradoxically, save the current European order. NATO would have no choice but to respond decisively: by escalating the conflict, Putin could unite his opponents. On the contrary, a relative restraint could have the opposite effect: the policy of maximum pressure, without invasion, could eventually divide and paralyze NATO.
To see how this could develop, just take a look at Germany. Prior to the crisis, it was America's closest ally, boasted of a special relationship with Moscow, and was the most important partner for Eastern and Central Europe. Today, some in Washington question its willingness to confront Russia, its relationship with Moscow is deteriorating rapidly, and many Eastern Europeans are annoyed by its apparent reluctance to support them. But Germany has not changed - the world in which it operates has changed. "The country is like a train that stays still while the train station is on fire," Bojan Pancevsky, the Wall Street Journal's correspondent in Germany, told Krastev.
Geopolitical power is no longer determined by economic power, but by the degree of resistance to pain. The enemy is not someone behind an iron curtain but someone with whom you do business, someone from whom you get gas and to whom you export high technology. Mild power has given way to durability.
And that, Krastev notes, is a problem for Europe. If Putin's success is to be determined by the ability of Western societies to cope with the pressures of high energy prices, misinformation and political instability for a long time, then he has good reason to hope. As things stand, Europe is remarkably unprepared for these challenges. We need investments in military capabilities, energy diversification, building social cohesion. Otherwise, for Europe, the Russian threat of war may prove more destructive than the war itself.
Joe Biden
Donald Trump's Democratic successor in the White House wanted to make the US relationship with Russia "stable and predictable", framed in the dialogue on arms control, in order to focus on the strategic rivalry with China. Developments thwarted his hopes. Biden is trying to prevent a Russian invasion of Ukraine by preparing heavy economic sanctions against Moscow, sending weapons to strengthen the Ukrainian army and strengthening its NATO allies near the border with Russia. in Eastern Europe.
He has repeatedly made it clear that he has no plans to send American troops to Ukraine: neither the American public, nor his party, nor the Republicans want it. But there is growing concern in Washington about the possibility of a fatal accident or miscalculation, an "unintended escalation" that would launch the risk of a direct confrontation with Russia.
Vladimir Putin
What the Russian president wants is more or less clear: a new European security architecture that recognizes the Russian sphere of influence in the post-Soviet space and rejects the universality of Western values. How he intends to achieve it, whether he chooses a full-scale war in Ukraine, some kind of hybrid attack or some other path, is the subject of endless speculation.
However, Vladimir Putin can only fear the cost of an invasion of Ukraine and of human lives, as the Russians would face strong resistance, and of the Russian economy, as Western sanctions would be much heavier than than in 2014, after the annexation of Crimea. And then there is the question of his backwardness: "If we have a war with Ukraine and fratricidal deaths," Konstantin Remchukov, publisher of the Moscow-based Nezavisimaya Gazeta newspaper, recently told the New York Times, "then the Russians will remember him." "Putin only for that."
Emmanuel Makron
After at least four recent telephone conversations with Vladimir Putin and as many as with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, the French president is heading to Moscow today and to Kiev tomorrow in a bid to encourage a de-escalation between the two countries. An ardent pro-European, an advocate of the 27-nation strategy, Macron does not intend to leave Europe on the sidelines of the wider dialogue with Moscow, even though she has repeatedly made it clear that she intends to negotiate a new security architecture in Europe exclusively with the US.
Two months before the first round of the French presidential election, the geopolitical crisis may allow him, within the walls, to strengthen his prestige. But the "outstretched" policy it has pursued, with no results so far, towards Russia could undermine its political capital in the US and anti-Russian European countries - especially in Central Europe.
Olaf Solts
The new chancellor will have his first meeting with Joe Biden in Washington today. Returning, he will meet with the French President, the Polish Prime Minister and the three leaders of the Baltic states, next Monday he will travel to Kiev and on Tuesday to Moscow. Following Soltz's sharp criticism of the lack of leadership inside and outside the walls over the Ukrainian crisis, German diplomacy seems to be gaining momentum. His government has refused to send weapons to Ukraine, recently offering 5.000 helmets instead, and he is evading the future of Nord Stream 2 in the event of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The German ambassador to Washington sent a note to Berlin last week warning that many in the US Congress feared that Berlin had "found them with Putin" in order not to disrupt the flow of gas. Soltz's central mission in Washington, DC, to restore German credibility.
Boris Johnson
Britain is at the forefront of warnings of the imminent nature of a Russian attack on Ukraine, and the British prime minister is replacing stern warnings of "tragic error" and unprecedented sanctions with tangible gestures - such as the μμύ 88 million promised last year. in Ukraine during his visit to Kiev. For Johnson, this is the first major foreign policy crisis since Brexit, and it is meant to show that Britain is not turning into the global insignificance that many predicted.
In addition, on a personal level, it is an opportunity to prove to his party skeptics, in the midst of the Downing Street coronation scandal, his leadership skills. But the mocking remarks of Russian officials, just hours before a 48-hour delay due to internal problems, resulted in a Johnson-Putin telephone conversation about the "completely confused" British Prime Minister, the "stupid and ignorant" British politicians and useless "British diplomacy said it all.
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