A decisive phase in the Brexit process begins today in Brussels, where British Prime Minister Theresa May will try to convince Europeans that her commitments are "sufficient" for talks on a future EU-Britain trade relationship to begin. which London eagerly desires.
May is set to meet with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker for a crucial "working lunch", during which a final agreement on the terms of the divorce, scheduled for late March 2019, is expected to be finalized.
The British Prime Minister will also meet with the President of the European Council Donald Tusk, according to Downing Street.
"With a lot of discussion scheduled for the future, Monday will be an important step on the road to the crucial (Summit) December Summit," May's spokeswoman said last night, adding that there had been consultations over the weekend. of both sides.
"It will be difficult, but possible, if (the British) seem reasonable," a European diplomatic source also confirmed yesterday, explaining that there were "four or five points to be negotiated" on the three issues that the EU has identified as top priorities.
The bill that London is about to pay now seems to be on the right track, as is the post-Brexit fortunes of European citizens living in Britain, but also the future border with Ireland, which in recent weeks has been reduced to the most complex issue. "I asked Theresa May to put her final proposal on the table by December 4th at the latest, so that at the next European Summit we can assess whether sufficient progress has been made," Tusk explained on Friday.
The next Summit is scheduled for December 15.
"Sufficient progress" is the condition set by the 27 in order to start the second phase of the talks, which will include the future London-EU relationship, and especially the trade one.
Should there be a green light at the December Summit, these discussions could even begin in early January. Otherwise, they will be transferred for "February or March", according to a diplomatic source.
May's proposals will be discussed at the European Commission on Wednesday during a meeting of its members with EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier. He will announce his verdict after the meeting and present it to the ambassadors of the 27 member states, before the final decision at the December Summit.
In recent days, many media outlets have reported that Britain and the EU have agreed on the amount to be paid by London, which ranges from 45 to 55 billion euros. However, this information was denied by both sides.
In the meantime, the Irish issue seems to have become a big problem: Dublin, with the support of the other 26 EU countries, has asked for clearer commitments from London not to return the natural border with Northern Ireland.
Restoring these borders will weaken the economies of both sides and jeopardize the 1998 peace agreement that ended thirty years of bloody conflict.