The asteroid has one chance in 625 to hit Earth, based on data projections from the European Space Agency, although NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory's Sentry system put the odds at closer to 1 in 560. The latter monitors possible collisions with celestial objects.
But the space rock – called 2023 DW – is the only object on NASA's hazard list to be ranked at place 1 out of 10 on the Torino crash risk scale, a metric for categorizing the predicted risk of an object colliding with Earth. All other items are ranked 0 on the 'Torino scale'.
Although 2023 DW is in top of the list, its ranking of 1 means only that "the probability of a collision is extremely unlikely, with no cause for public concern," according to the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, while a ranking of 0 means that "the probability of a collision is zero or so low so that it is essentially zero".
"This object is not particularly alarming," said Davide Farnocchia, a navigation engineer at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California.
"This object is not particularly alarming," said Davide Farnocchia, a navigation engineer at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California.
NASA officials have warned that the chances of an impact could change dramatically, as more 2023 DW observations are collected and additional analyzes are performed.
"Often, when new objects are first discovered," NASA Asteroid Watch noted Tuesday on Twitter, "several weeks of data are needed to reduce uncertainties and adequately predict their far-future trajectories."
"Often, when new objects are first discovered," NASA Asteroid Watch noted Tuesday on Twitter, "several weeks of data are needed to reduce uncertainties and adequately predict their far-future trajectories."
Asteroid impact hazard
It is common for newly discovered asteroids to appear more threatening when first observed.
"Because trajectories derived from very limited sets of observations are more uncertain, such trajectories are more likely to 'allow' for future impacts," the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, located at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, notes on its website.
"Because trajectories derived from very limited sets of observations are more uncertain, such trajectories are more likely to 'allow' for future impacts," the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, located at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, notes on its website.
"However, such early predictions can often be ruled out as we incorporate more observations and reduce uncertainties in the object's orbit," he says. "Most of the time, the threat associated with a particular object will decrease as additional observations become available."
It may take a few days before new data is collected because of the asteroid's proximity to the moon, Farnocchia noted in an email to CNNi. The last full moon was two days ago and still looks bright and large in the sky, likely obscuring 2023 DW from direct observation, he said.
"But then the object will remain visible for weeks (and even months with larger telescopes) so we can make as many observations as needed," he added.
"But then the object will remain visible for weeks (and even months with larger telescopes) so we can make as many observations as needed," he added.
The asteroid is about 50 meters in diameter, according to NASA data. As 2023 DW orbits the sun, it has 10 predicted close approaches to Earth, with the closest landing on February 14, 2046, and another nine between 2047 and 2054. The closest the asteroid is expected to travel to Earth is about 1,8 million kilometers, notes NASA's Eyes on Asteroids website.
The space rock was first spotted in the sky on February 2.
It travels approx 25 kilometers per second more than 18 million kilometers from Earth, completing one cycle around the sun every 271 days.
Farnocchia noted her success DART shipment of NASA, or the Double Asteroid Redirection Test, in September 2022 as evidence that humanity may be ready to face space rocks on potentially destructive paths. DART intentionally collided a spacecraft with an asteroid to alter its orbit.
"That's exactly why we flew this mission," he said, "and this mission was a spectacular success."