War or peace in Ukraine? - Europe is playing its leftovers
Today and the week that has begun are crucial, as Berlin and Paris try to take the initiative and prevent the fatal development of a war.
FILE PHOTO: Russian President Vladimir Putin shakes hands with French President Emmanuel Macron during the Libya summit in Berlin, Germany, January 19, 2020. REUTERS / Hannibal Hanschke / File Photo
Monday, February 7, is the first day of another crucial and decisive week for the Ukrainian people and the effort being made to defuse the crisis through diplomatic means and without sounding the guns. A week that is sealed, in fact, by the "counterattack" of Europe, which is trying to find itself in the position of protagonist, instead of the accomplice that it is until today.
The agenda "speaks for itself": French President and current EU President Emanuel Macron travels to Moscow to meet with Vladimir Putin on a "dangerous diplomatic mission", the newspaper writes. the world.
The next day, Tuesday, it is Macron's turn for the Ukrainian capital and Volodymyr Zelensky, whom he will try to persuade to attend a summit with Putin - having to "give" both something which they can do back.
The "ghosts" of Soltz
At the same time, German Chancellor Olaf Soltz is already in Washington, where he will try to prove to Joe Biden that both his country and the EU have a say in the matter and in fact important. He himself, according to the announced schedule, will then follow in Macron's footsteps, also visiting Moscow and Kiev - at a time when the ghost of Merkel and "Mr. Nothing" has already begun to haunt him.
For her part, German Foreign Minister Analena Berbock is paying a visit to Kiev today, which seems outraged by the Berlin government 's refusal to take a more proactive stand. As for the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, he is also in the capital of the United States, to meet with his counterpart, Anthony Blinken, but also to attend the 9th US-EU energy summit - where, as one can easily understand, the Ukrainian will dominate.
"More diplomacy, less war"
What is clear from all this, as the American political analyst Rajan Minon notes in Liberation, is that "the more diplomatic activity there is, the less the risks of a war in Ukraine". And this, as Washington insists that Russia is now ready not almost to attack, but to occupy Kiev as well - even if Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba says he does not believe in "revelation predictions."
What is certain, however, is that diplomacy can not continue indefinitely as long as the armies are facing the trigger. Sooner or later, it will either lead to a viable relaxation solution or it will be forced to give up, giving the first word to the war.
This is exactly what Europeans know and fear. That's why they decided to take matters into their own hands - or at least try. After all, one does not need to be an expert to understand that it is they (their economies, their social cohesion, their political stability and much more) who will be threatened, especially if the worst case scenario is not prevented.
A matter of survival - and honor!
This is their main motivation, more than the "issue of honor" that Macron and Soltz face as they let the Americans and the Russians, as well as Tayyip Erdogan, command their house. In the event, after all, that they fail to play a leading role and provide a solution to this crisis, then the theories of "strategic autonomy" and "strong Europe" will refer to algae for silk ribbons.
The truth, of course, is that the "27" do not have a common line for the Ukrainian or against Moscow. However, if Berlin and Paris manage to take matters into their own hands, they will then have a better chance of "dragging" the others in the direction they want.
Otherwise, the same would happen - by analogy - with the American and British invasion of Iraq in 2003, about 20 years ago: Europe would split in two and the rift would be so great. , so that the future of the EU itself will be uncertain.