Around 7 million registered voters in the UK are coming to the polls today, from 10 a.m. local to 48 p.m. Conservative Prime Minister Boris Johnson has promised to fulfill Brexit on January 31. Opposition Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn has promised a referendum. The results are expected in the early morning hours of December 13th. What are the possible scenarios of the elections.
Majority Tories
Johnson wins a majority of 326 seats or more. The threshold may be marginally lower, depending on the performance of the smaller parties. This will allow Johnson to pass Parliament on the Brexit deal he negotiated with Brussels earlier this year and Britain to leave the EU in late January. Once Britain leaves the European bloc, it will enter a transitional period during which most of the status quo in its relationship with the EU will be maintained. This period will last until the end of December 2020. This period will used to negotiate a free trade agreement with the EU that will define the relationship between the world's fifth largest economy and its largest trading partner. Johnson says he will not extend the transition period. Some fear that this may mean that this period will end without an agreement, abruptly terminating the trade arrangements.
Without a majority
If Johnson does not secure a clear majority, Britain will find itself with a Parliament in which no party has autonomy. This will result in the parties seeking to build alliances. Johnson is the one who will make the first move. He may try to form a government or resign. A government will have to prove that it can win votes in Parliament. If he resigns, the baton passes to Corbin, who will try to form a government. Corbyn may be able to persuade the Scottish SNP and the Liberal Democrats to support him in a no-confidence vote or at least not to vote against him. If Corbyn is able to form a government, the smaller parties are likely to form a coalition with a view to holding a second referendum on staying in the EU.
Johnson in power
If Johnson does not secure a majority, he may try to retain power by reaching agreements with his opponents. While there are no clear allies for him based on his position on Brexit, he may decide that another term as prime minister deserves the blow that his breach of his promise to fulfill Brexit in January will do to his prestige.
Majority of Workers
If the Labor Party falsifies the predictions and wins the majority, they will have the absolute freedom to call a second referendum and start implementing the program of radical economic reform. In the first 100 days of government, the Labor Party says it will present a budget that will end austerity, nationalize industries and businesses such as the railways and the water company, and begin investing in infrastructure.
Source: politis
