The transmissibility index and the forecasts for the number of cases

The data as they emerge from the publication of the National Report by the Ministry of Health

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Evidence for the course of the coronavirus pandemic in Cyprus was provided by the National Report published by the Ministry of Health.

Among other things, the National Report for the period until Monday (30/11) records the transmissibility index of the coronavirus, which ranges from 0,86 to 1,15, depending on the method.

The following are the recordings depending on the method:

Method A: Rt 24 - Nov 30: 0,99 (0,91 - 1,04)

Method B: Rt 23 - 30 Nov: 0,73

Method C: R (t) (last days): 1,15 (90% confidence interval for the last day 0,88 -1,60)

Method D: R (t) 24 - 30 Nov: 0,86 (0,82 - 0,91)

Rt 24 - 30 Nov .: 0,86 (0,81 - 0,90)

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Of interest is the "Analysis of change points - forecasts", which records the actual changes in the recording of cases and the range of cases that could occur in a week.

According to the measurements of the cases, it is predicted that the maximum number ranges between 300 and 350 cases, while the minimum is more than 100.

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Source: Sigmalive