Ο Professor of Health Policy, Elias Mosialos, of Imperial College and the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), posted on Facebook a review of what is known so far about the new Omicron variant of the coronavirus. The reason for Mr. Mosialos's post, there were publications and opinions about the weakening of the protection of vaccines against Omicron, based on laboratory measurements of up to 40 times lower antibodies.
In the above context, Mr. Mosialos points out that "Public health is an interdisciplinary field that combines analysis and information from different disciplines to draw safe conclusions. "Another issue is the dissemination of information and the popularization of scientific information, and another issue is the analytical approach and the evaluation of complex data, such as the pandemic we have been facing for two years.".
On the occasion of various posts the professor made a post where through 14 questions and answers, summarizes the data to date:
- Is a drop in the titer of neutralizing antibodies alone indicative, even if significant, of vaccine efficacy?
The immune response is multiparametric. That is why there is no limit to the coronavirus set by a research or other public health body as a 'safety limit' or 'protection limit' for the neutralizing antibodies below which we are considered exposed to the virus.
- Is the fall a cause for concern?
Two points here. On the one hand we have the immunosuppressed that have specificity regarding cellular immunity. There may be indicative and disturbing. On the other hand, we have researchers who produce and process data from studies on the new virus, including cellular immunity. Uncertainty is also different for them, because they have to investigate the problem and redefine the immune response, in order to inform or even warn decision makers. But you will remember that for Beta we had such laboratory results, but in the end there was no problem with the existing vaccines in terms of protection against serious disease.
- Do we have any other information?
There are various scientific observations and unpublished laboratory studies on cell cultures with this variant, or changes in the structure of the new virus, but nothing yet shows that there is a specific cause for concern.
- When will we know?
We will know for sure about the transmission, the hospitalization, or the most serious outcome of the disease, if someone gets Omicron, but also the reduction by age or vaccination status (full / free / two or three doses) in less than two weeks from the epidemiological and clinical data collected. These will complement the picture of existing laboratory data.
- What do we know about clinical data at present?
The majority of those who are stuck and those who have been admitted to the hospital are unvaccinated. We also know from ECDC data that of the 287 cases in the EU, as far as they know, they are asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic.
- Is it enough that those who are stuck were asymptomatic, to draw conclusions already?
No, because most of them belonged to smaller age groups (under 40) and in these age groups, they usually do not have a serious illness. So we have to wait to have a bigger sample from both South Africa and Europe to draw conclusions.
- Do we have any other information?
Analysis of wastewater in South Africa shows that the extent of dispersion is greater than that currently quantified molecularly in vectors, and must be confirmed by further analysis.
- In the good case scenario where the Omicron variant is more contagious and less dangerous, can we assume that the end of the pandemic is near?
So far the two variants that have prevailed, Alpha and Delta, have changed from the original strain of the virus, to a more infectious and a little more dangerous. If the good scenario prevails, it will be the first time we will have a more infectious and less dangerous strain.
- So are we heading towards the end?
Not necessarily, mainly because the virus circulates very easily, as it is transmitted by pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic, billions of unvaccinated and to some extent vaccinated. And here again, in terms of viral load and duration, vaccinated people transmit the virus significantly less.
- Are we likely to see more variants of the virus in the coming months?
Yes. But remember that we obviously can not push the virus to direct the course of the infection it causes. But we can use the availability of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions. The solution is to increase vaccinations and comply with public health rules. In a short time we will have antiviral drugs. In the future, the virus may become more contagious but less dangerous or - in the least likely scenario - more dangerous. In this case, if the symptoms are more severe, as with SARS-CoV-1, the diagnosis will be made more immediately - and with a combination of drugs, vaccines and early isolation, we will cope.
- So after so long there are still only uncertainties?
Not exactly. We have more potential, we have vaccines and medicines and we know which public health measures are effective. We have no right to speak disparagingly, and none of us should forget the vast amount of scientific research that is being produced every day around the world, so that we are all protected and informed and ready to cope.
- Should we be afraid of Omicron or not?
If there's one thing we should be afraid of, it's the Delta. That is what we must remember. Be careful because the Delta kills dozens of our compatriots and thousands of people around the world every day. It is important for everyone to comply with the protection measures and to speed up the vaccinations.
- What do Pfizer / BioNTech companies say about the effectiveness of Omicron vaccines?
In today's announcement, the two companies cite data that show that maybe two doses with the current vaccines are enough to protect us from a serious disease if we get stuck. This protection will be even higher after the three doses.
- What do we do now, in conclusion?
There is no need to devalue the possibilities we have to cope with the pandemic. No panic. A continuous but mainly consistent analysis of the data with an interdisciplinary approach is needed. It also takes a little patience. In the next 10-15 days we will have safe conclusions.