U.S. intelligence says Russia is stepping up its preparations for a large-scale invasion of Ukraine and has already deployed 70 percent of the troops it believes are needed for such an operation, according to US officials. .
Moscow has mobilized 110.000 troops on its border with Ukraine and may have enough capacity to launch its offensive in the next two weeks, according to US intelligence officials who briefed members of the US Congress and European partners in recent days. USA.
They said they had not reached a conclusion on whether or not Russian President Vladimir Putin had decided to order an attack, but wanted to have all possible options, from invading the Donbass region, which is in the hands of pro-Russian separatists, to invading throughout the Ukrainian territory.
As military aid continues to reach Ukraine's border, the Kremlin resident is expected to have enough force to launch a large-scale invasion of some 150.000 men by mid-February, US and European allies have warned.
If the Russian president makes the most radical choice, he could encircle Kiev, the Ukrainian capital, and overthrow President Volodymyr Zelensky within 48 hours, according to US intelligence.
They warned that such a conflict would have heavy human costs, could cost the lives of 25.000 to 50.000 civilians, 5.000 to 25.000 Ukrainian soldiers and 3.000 to 10.000 Russian soldiers. It could also cause a real tsunami of 1 to 5 million refugees, mostly in Poland.
A first contingent of US troops arrived in Poland on Saturday, where US President Joe Biden ordered reinforcements to be deployed to defend the NATO country in the event of "any attack" amid continuing diplomatic ballet to persuade Moscow. to withdraw troops gathered on the border with Ukraine.
Russia denies planning an invasion, saying it simply wants guarantees of its own security. Moscow has also announced joint "military exercises" with Belarus, where it has deployed several battalions, north of Kiev and in the Brest region, not far from the border with Poland.
Within two weeks, according to US intelligence, 60 Russian army battalions have been deployed in the northern, eastern and southern borders of Ukraine, especially in Crimea, which was annexed by Moscow in 2014.
On Friday, they had reached 80, while another 14 were moving from the rest of Russia, especially from Vladivostok, to the Russian Far East.
About 1.500 members of the Russian Special Forces, the fearsome Spetsnaz, have been at the border for a week now, according to US intelligence.
In addition, a strong Russian naval force has been concentrated in the Black Sea. It includes five amphibious boats, which could be used to land on the southern coast of Ukraine, they noted.
Six other vessels were seen departing from the Barents Sea, north of Russia, and circling Britain before crossing the Strait of Gibraltar, heading for the Black Sea, according to US intelligence.
Strong air forces are still deployed around Ukraine - fighters, bombers, air defense arrays…
The United States said on Thursday it had "evidence" that Moscow was preparing a fake video allegedly recording a Ukrainian attack to use as a pretext to invade Ukraine. The Russian government has denied this.
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